College Football · resolved market
James Madison vs. Oregon: O/U 45.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9af122f74a9126342c0e7df47ecf3decec15b9ef1a25df16008683ecd5543b0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,681
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,032
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,681 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x11e2…26ccbacked Under | 48c | 15,000$7,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,200 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -7.0wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -36%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 7,178$3,736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,442.1 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Over | 51c | 5,319$2,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,606.5 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 53c | 5,249$2,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,460.96 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e7…52cabacked Under | 49c | 2,161$1,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 45c | 1,414$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.3 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 52c | 1,148$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.07 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x586d…c5dcbacked Under | 45c | 828.96$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed Over | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.45 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 45c | 353$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.85 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8214…ef72backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x555a…71a4backed Over | 57c | 254.39$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x493c…f027backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Over | 56c | 125$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a52…9ad6backed Over | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 55c | 42.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 284 | 40.8%116 W · 168 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7c…666cbacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.37per pick | 50cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…5a42backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- James Madison vs. Oregon: O/U 45.5this page
- James Madison vs. OregonOregon won
- James Madison vs. Oregon: 1H MoneylineOregon won
- James Madison vs. Oregon: O/U 46.5Over won
- James Madison vs. Oregon: O/U 47.5Over won
- O/U 50.5Over won
- Spread: Oregon (-21.5)James Madison won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.