TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Spurs (-6.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Knicksof Spurs, Knicks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,765,612
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,834,955

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,765,612 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 631 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbddf…c684backed Knicks49c375,013$183,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191,187.4472648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Spurs52c274,249$142,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142,609.4287451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc807…c12bbacked Spurs50c225,000$112,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112,50020545.9%94 W · 111 L-12.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf284…b9f9backed Knicks50c143,532$72,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71,115.9718651.1%95 W · 91 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Spurs51c100,000$51,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,999.964,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Spurs51c100,000$51,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,999.7817251.7%89 W · 83 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9153…d549backed Spurs10c99,634$9,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,941.36742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick61cpaid-39.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd38a…8d26backed Knicks49c81,614$39,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,623.085253.8%28 W · 24 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2805…76edbacked Knicks49c40,622$19,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,716.978439.3%33 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd14…d62abacked Spurs50c40,108$20,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,0005036%18 W · 32 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-23.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1e77…8c33backed Knicks50c40,000$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,00015952.8%84 W · 75 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Spurs50c35,997$17,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,998.851,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd9d…b730backed Spurs50c30,036$15,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,0181741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed Knicks51c29,412$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,411.7611654.3%63 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd65…ee96backed Spurs52c28,846$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,0009725.8%25 W · 72 L-9.5wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-34.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Spurs50c28,360$14,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,1805848.3%28 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Knicks49c20,000$9,831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,169.3125352.6%133 W · 120 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa41c…fadebacked Knicks51c20,000$10,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,8004252.4%22 W · 20 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+39%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x163e…dc5bbacked Knicks49c20,000$9,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,20020758%120 W · 87 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Spurs52c19,231$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00063746.6%297 W · 340 L-16.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd33a…2cc4backed Spurs52c17,554$9,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,127.893441.2%14 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Knicks52c15,385$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,384.627342.5%31 W · 42 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Spurs49c13,708$6,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,716.7410944%48 W · 61 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Spurs48c12,965$6,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,223.415154.9%28 W · 23 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb56d…d621backed Knicks51c12,661$6,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,204.06560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+20.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Knicks48c12,487$6,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,470.1955251.3%283 W · 269 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf9e…a250backed Knicks49c12,100$5,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,191.9915247.4%72 W · 80 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d7b…e2cebacked Spurs51c12,081$6,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,161.335940.7%24 W · 35 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3920…32b0backed Knicks49c10,204$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,204.083100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7634…600dbacked Knicks55c10,035$5,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,515.8428056.8%159 W · 121 L+22.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+50.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1964…b453backed Spurs50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc43a…591dbacked Spurs50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6982…a165backed Knicks74c9,602$7,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,471.321471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+16.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb10b…0b04backed Spurs50c8,888$4,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,4443116.1%5 W · 26 L-4.5wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-58.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked Knicks48c8,000$3,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,160366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+48.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ba1…1ce4backed Knicks51c7,900$4,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,8716045%27 W · 33 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1edc…77bfbacked Spurs50c7,882$3,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,940.87366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…57e7backed Knicks49c6,122$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,122.451758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Knicks50c6,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,00079549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e8a…a5bcbacked Spurs50c6,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0008242.7%35 W · 47 L+0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4852…67c4backed Spurs50c6,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0005655.4%31 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9621…0a73backed Knicks51c5,686$2,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,786.277448.6%36 W · 38 L-5.2wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-14.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd35c…b1b7backed Spurs50c5,656$2,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,82810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Spurs22c5,560$1,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,232.581,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x48e0…826dbacked Spurs51c5,294$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7001435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8857…4b5bbacked Knicks49c5,112$2,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,607.242045%9 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-18.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Spurs51c5,048$2,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,574.4862051.1%317 W · 303 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Spurs51c5,048$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,549.884,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Knicks50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,50038434.9%134 W · 250 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Spurs51c4,965$2,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,532.0826753.2%142 W · 125 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd60…396cbacked Knicks50c4,925$2,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,462.255657.1%32 W · 24 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+22.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Spurs50c4,875$2,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,452.464,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Spurs52c4,808$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50090650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x021c…232fbacked Spurs52c4,500$2,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,34012056.7%68 W · 52 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Knicks46c4,000$1,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,159.9956453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8180…f4dabacked Spurs51c4,000$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,039.7943352.2%226 W · 207 L+19.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeaa0…09b4backed Knicks51c3,850$1,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,886.471457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+30.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Spurs42c3,646$1,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,546.9752150.9%265 W · 256 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x96a3…d944backed Knicks48c3,600$1,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,887.227950.6%40 W · 39 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+9.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Knicks51c3,283$1,674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,608.6710447.1%49 W · 55 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-3.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7677…37c0backed Knicks50c3,200$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,60014148.2%68 W · 73 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x479b…cdb1backed Knicks49c3,065$1,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,563.151136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+67.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Spurs46c3,051$1,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,404.6119246.4%89 W · 103 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x300b…f636backed Knicks50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50016050%80 W · 80 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Spurs48c3,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,44065045.1%293 W · 357 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Spurs14c2,945$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.6389444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Knicks51c2,941$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,441.092,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Knicks50c2,902$1,442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,460.021,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Knicks50c2,881$1,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,435.264948.2%313 W · 336 L-3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe504…600ebacked Spurs50c2,788$1,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,394.096043.3%26 W · 34 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Knicks49c2,782$1,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,418.716,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1509…ca95backed Knicks49c2,771$1,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,413.213951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked Spurs51c2,500$1,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,27544252.3%231 W · 211 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e92…1f13backed Knicks47c2,490$1,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,309.54475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.40per pick35cpaid+156.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2972…3f29backed Knicks49c2,461$1,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,255.273941%16 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+24.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cd4…ce48backed Spurs52c2,291$1,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,191.544656.5%26 W · 20 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+25.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x791e…9bdabacked Spurs50c2,285$1,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,142.4617247.7%82 W · 90 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea39…9d34backed Knicks48c2,284$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,184.031457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+52.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0273…1867backed Spurs50c2,238$1,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,11929040.3%117 W · 173 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x32f1…c96ebacked Spurs48c2,100$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,007.9911757.3%67 W · 50 L+9.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+21.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x10d4…69ebbacked Knicks49c2,041$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.8262948.6%306 W · 323 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7ee…fe5dbacked Knicks49c2,041$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.8211759.8%70 W · 47 L+13.0wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+24.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9849…26d5backed Knicks49c2,010$985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,025.15366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+58.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x02a6…3463backed Knicks49c2,007$983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,023.542934.5%10 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4f9…9419backed Spurs50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0006341.3%26 W · 37 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Spurs52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04089853.1%477 W · 421 L+21.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Knicks50c2,000$1,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99066352.6%349 W · 314 L+30.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6536…6ed1backed Spurs50c1,932$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc5b…5443backed Spurs52c1,923$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00012542.4%53 W · 72 L-11.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-18.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Knicks50c1,900$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95531453.5%168 W · 146 L+0.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x591a…40a8backed Spurs53c1,879$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995.8425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-41.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Spurs13c1,870$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.838,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Spurs53c1,839$978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$977.632,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc0df…5974backed Knicks51c1,747$891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$856.131369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.23per pick46cpaid+62.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2ef9…b403backed Spurs50c1,719$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.72922.2%2 W · 7 L-3.0wins-0.34per pick56cpaid-62.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc092…0cd9backed Spurs52c1,695$882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881.625032%16 W · 34 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a3b…2eb3backed Knicks51c1,560$796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.482860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+82.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Knicks49c1,531$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.592,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked Knicks50c1,500$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75523742.6%101 W · 136 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Knicks48c1,500$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78013442.5%57 W · 77 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 94. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.