NHL · resolved market
Canadiens vs. Lightning
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfefabc643cdf485ff8465bca41e066e5afb3c36abea93b823bab4de7d9bcd0f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Canadiensof Canadiens, Lightning
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $641,098
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $679,972
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $641,098 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 622 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47a8…52f9backed Canadiens | 40c | 164,873$65,949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98,923.69 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Lightning | 60c | 98,803$59,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59,281.84 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc65c…ea39backed Lightning | 60c | 74,000$44,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,400 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd92…6b2abacked Canadiens | 40c | 60,330$24,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,194.65 | 146 | 50.7%74 W · 72 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Canadiens | 57c | 55,390$31,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,071.89 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef50…e3bdbacked Lightning | 60c | 38,867$23,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,256.97 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Lightning | 53c | 25,600$13,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,535.61 | 138 | 41.3%57 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Lightning | 60c | 20,873$12,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,621.19 | 287 | 49.8%143 W · 144 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Lightning | 34c | 16,507$5,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,665.68 | 896 | 36.9%331 W · 565 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Lightning | 13c | 16,488$2,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,173.64 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24c…5809backed Canadiens | 40c | 16,250$6,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,750 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1467…4372backed Lightning | 60c | 13,500$8,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,100 | 321 | 51.7%166 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Lightning | 59c | 13,452$7,936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,936.43 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Canadiens | 40c | 12,444$4,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,466.33 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…c67ebacked Canadiens | 41c | 11,162$4,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,585.48 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…3af2backed Lightning | 46c | 10,000$4,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,625.22 | 154 | 48.1%74 W · 80 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f08…5afbbacked Lightning | 59c | 9,664$5,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,667.37 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Lightning | 60c | 9,000$5,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,400 | 260 | 58.8%153 W · 107 L | +17.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Canadiens | 48c | 8,271$3,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,281.23 | 403 | 56.3%227 W · 176 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3625…1187backed Lightning | 61c | 8,197$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Canadiens | 57c | 8,013$4,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,480.73 | 521 | 72.6%378 W · 143 L | +36.7wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Lightning | 59c | 6,410$3,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,779.11 | 336 | 52.1%175 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked Canadiens | 73c | 6,365$4,646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,718.52 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea3…d227backed Lightning | 54c | 6,068$3,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,276.91 | 121 | 46.3%56 W · 65 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Canadiens | 40c | 5,739$2,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,443.35 | 520 | 50%260 W · 260 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Lightning | 44c | 5,635$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Canadiens | 39c | 5,386$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,285.38 | 566 | 49.5%280 W · 286 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a88…41ccbacked Lightning | 59c | 5,356$3,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,160.1 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Lightning | 1c | 5,187$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.03 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…b6eebacked Lightning | 0c | 5,070$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 189 | 5.3%10 W · 179 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…fec6backed Canadiens | 41c | 4,878$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,878.05 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01e6…e7e0backed Lightning | 59c | 4,545$2,682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,681.55 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf11…c679backed Canadiens | 40c | 4,445$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,645.12 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Lightning | 41c | 4,170$1,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,709.89 | 752 | 51.7%389 W · 363 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Lightning | 60c | 4,156$2,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,493.6 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f6…dbd1backed Lightning | 60c | 3,928$2,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,357 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Canadiens | 58c | 3,886$2,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,648.07 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc08…a137backed Canadiens | 46c | 3,844$1,771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,073.39 | 302 | 59.6%180 W · 122 L | +31.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Canadiens | 54c | 3,745$2,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,724.7 | 996 | 38.2%380 W · 616 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Lightning | 59c | 3,606$2,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,127.41 | 397 | 52.1%207 W · 190 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Canadiens | 41c | 3,417$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,016.86 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bf…34f1backed Lightning | 60c | 3,333$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…8ec9backed Canadiens | 40c | 3,333$1,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,999.79 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…600ebacked Canadiens | 59c | 3,095$1,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,273.11 | 270 | 44.4%120 W · 150 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Lightning | 59c | 2,788$1,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,655.99 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Canadiens | 66c | 2,648$1,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.63 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Lightning | 27c | 2,640$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.4 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f36…2819backed Canadiens | 41c | 2,439$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,439.02 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x844e…4efdbacked Lightning | 56c | 2,325$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 52 | 76.9%40 W · 12 L | +11.6wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Lightning | 34c | 2,215$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.03 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…3e8fbacked Canadiens | 56c | 2,197$1,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955.79 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc7…2b30backed Lightning | 36c | 2,182$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…0397backed Lightning | 60c | 2,056$1,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,226.96 | 204 | 50%102 W · 102 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Canadiens | 53c | 2,033$1,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955.98 | 332 | 34.3%114 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff8…8a76backed Canadiens | 40c | 2,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5a…e0c0backed Canadiens | 40c | 2,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed Canadiens | 40c | 2,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Lightning | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.99 | 267 | 50.2%134 W · 133 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Lightning | 59c | 1,950$1,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150.5 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…2101backed Canadiens | 75c | 1,904$1,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.04 | 173 | 53.8%93 W · 80 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5db9…e95fbacked Lightning | 58c | 1,864$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.04 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…6fe2backed Lightning | 60c | 1,808$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,085 | 249 | 52.2%130 W · 119 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Canadiens | 40c | 1,800$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071.8 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e1…62a2backed Canadiens | 57c | 1,754$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.39 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Canadiens | 61c | 1,495$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.05 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Lightning | 50c | 1,440$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.19 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeea6…135fbacked Canadiens | 46c | 1,278$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.26 | 201 | 50.2%101 W · 100 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb48e…d489backed Lightning | 40c | 1,250$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e2…98a8backed Lightning | 60c | 1,241$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.74 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked Lightning | 31c | 1,228$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.99 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Lightning | 60c | 1,200$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 227 | 47.6%108 W · 119 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Lightning | 54c | 1,200$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.98 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Canadiens | 41c | 1,157$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.84 | 331 | 51.7%171 W · 160 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2179…a75fbacked Canadiens | 40c | 1,125$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Lightning | 60c | 1,100$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 261 | 54%141 W · 120 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Lightning | 59c | 1,100$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.97 | 311 | 48.2%150 W · 161 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Canadiens | 61c | 1,088$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.9 | 1,301 | 52.6%684 W · 617 L | +23.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa969…1a84backed Canadiens | 40c | 1,013$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.8 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3f…ac90backed Lightning | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x695d…60d5backed Canadiens | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Canadiens | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 892 | 49.9%445 W · 447 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Lightning | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5e…64ddbacked Canadiens | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…157bbacked Canadiens | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf819…d410backed Canadiens | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590 | 209 | 51.7%108 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1da3…2f94backed Canadiens | 41c | 975.61$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.61 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Canadiens | 41c | 956.66$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.43 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -11.9wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Canadiens | 60c | 938.55$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.22 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e59…1520backed Lightning | 38c | 866.53$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.28 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff38…738dbacked Canadiens | 41c | 847.95$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.29 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Lightning | 27c | 829.78$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.87 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbde6…e8b5backed Lightning | 60c | 820$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Lightning | 35c | 808.1$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.32 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Lightning | 33c | 789.12$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.74 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbe…9666backed Canadiens | 58c | 759.2$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.2 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe427…4c44backed Lightning | 40c | 750$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Lightning | 51c | 723$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.73 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c7…5d22backed Canadiens | 42c | 715.08$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.08 | 84 | 45.2%38 W · 46 L | +14.8wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x98f2…6e14backed Lightning | 41c | 682.93$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Canadiens | 63c | 677.21$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.01 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Canadiens vs. Lightningthis page
- Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Under won
- Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Under won
- Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Lightning won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.