NHL · resolved market
Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56cc62f8362e3855058c9fd9a04437afb490e26ff8777b3522905f21bc40c7e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,740
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,740 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 41c | 3,000$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,230 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 59c | 2,509$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.69 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 50c | 2,119$1,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,055.56 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 26c | 1,552$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,151.55 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 75c | 1,029$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771.75 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16db…8d0fbacked Over | 52c | 1,001$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.61 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…9858backed Over | 40c | 917.67$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.07 | 291 | 46.7%136 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…6a90backed Over | 52c | 858.18$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.25 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 56c | 589.44$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.44 | 254 | 49.6%126 W · 128 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed Under | 60c | 483.19$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.28 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 45c | 438.28$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.96 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 59c | 400$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 60c | 346.48$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.59 | 287 | 49.8%143 W · 144 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked Over | 60c | 300$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 71c | 271.55$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.8 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa467…587dbacked Under | 54c | 234.04$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 44c | 227.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 190 | 33.7%64 W · 126 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 73c | 220.92$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.98 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 39c | 210.31$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.57 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 50c | 182$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.9 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 43c | 161.56$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.48 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 61c | 140$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.73 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 48c | 139.93$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.31 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Under | 51c | 107.69$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.83 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 59c | 101.01$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Over | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 979 | 55.5%543 W · 436 L | +21.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 53c | 89.68$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 52c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 140 | 45.7%64 W · 76 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa601…c58fbacked Under | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Under | 55c | 79.89$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 283 | 40.3%114 W · 169 L | -24.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 53c | 76.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 59c | 74.4$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 39c | 73.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.43 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc3…57d2backed Under | 71c | 70.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 39c | 67.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…11b3backed Over | 37c | 65.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb308…23a6backed Under | 33c | 63.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d74…ad52backed Under | 65c | 63.15$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1782…892fbacked Over | 51c | 59.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 43c | 59.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 41c | 56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 148 | 55.4%82 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 59c | 51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0eb…af1ebacked Under | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 172 | 27.3%47 W · 125 L | -17.4wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…b839backed Over | 71c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 450 | 69.3%312 W · 138 L | +51.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 42c | 49.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 201 | 45.8%92 W · 109 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 45c | 38.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 52c | 37.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Under | 28c | 35.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…6b77backed Under | 57c | 35.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc313…6645backed Under | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 47c | 34.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac7…5a6bbacked Under | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 79c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 41c | 27.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…5097backed Under | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4b…839fbacked Under | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Over | 52c | 21.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551a…b3dcbacked Under | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5this page
- Canadiens vs. LightningCanadiens won
- Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Under won
- Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Lightning won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.