NHL · resolved market
Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77c06401542d48ba1b312b92fdacfc4fd397387b10efa3456221c0f3430ff149
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,344
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,133
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,344 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 53c | 6,499$3,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,444.22 | 287 | 49.8%143 W · 144 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 47c | 6,432$3,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,409.01 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b90…2194backed Over | 52c | 3,722$1,936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,935.58 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2b…d4eabacked Under | 48c | 2,500$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 8c | 2,123$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,942.86 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…6a90backed Over | 59c | 1,056$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.99 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 37c | 1,040$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.67 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 48c | 936$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.72 | 207 | 56.5%117 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x106b…4e8bbacked Over | 53c | 845.28$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -7.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked Over | 61c | 652.56$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 79c | 626.17$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.9 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf51e…e386backed Under | 48c | 625$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 52c | 593.5$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.62 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 45c | 553.62$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.41 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 54c | 546$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.84 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Under | 20c | 505.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.46 | 93 | 21.5%20 W · 73 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 62c | 483.87$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.87 | 254 | 49.6%126 W · 128 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 34c | 475.84$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.02 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 48c | 453.22$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.6 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Over | 50c | 400$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.7 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 59c | 342$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.56 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…85c0backed Under | 48c | 317.83$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.27 | 102 | 56.9%58 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 56c | 316.17$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.34 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 40c | 316$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.61 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 21c | 301.39$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.92 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed85…c85abacked Under | 48c | 299.13$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.55 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5782…8ce5backed Over | 53c | 280$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.4 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…b968backed Under | 41c | 244.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.88 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Under | 47c | 229.98$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.89 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x149f…d306backed Under | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c4…78c6backed Under | 17c | 191.43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +199.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 60c | 140.62$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.87 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Under | 50c | 121.82$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.12 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 25c | 107.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.28 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Under | 47c | 106.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.61 | 336 | 52.1%175 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fee…842bbacked Under | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Over | 59c | 91$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.69 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16db…8d0fbacked Over | 59c | 91$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.69 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Over | 52c | 79.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 311 | 48.2%150 W · 161 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 55c | 74.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.59 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…b9d8backed Under | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 47c | 64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 337 | 45.7%154 W · 183 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 60c | 57.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 138 | 41.3%57 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 62c | 53.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0eb…af1ebacked Under | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 172 | 27.3%47 W · 125 L | -17.4wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc85a…8cd8backed Under | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 39c | 49.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…d867backed Under | 40c | 46.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 59 | 69.5%41 W · 18 L | +9.9wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 53c | 45.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 719 | 52.4%377 W · 342 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 67c | 43.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7072…d945backed Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…517abacked Under | 51c | 40.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4f…0ebebacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…a206backed Under | 39c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe09f…deffbacked Over | 62c | 33.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Under | 39c | 33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked Under | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Over | 58c | 26.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 164 | 43.3%71 W · 93 L | -15.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 70c | 25.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551a…b3dcbacked Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 71c | 19.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91c8…3ba8backed Over | 62c | 18.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Over | 59c | 16.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 79c | 12.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 148 | 55.4%82 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5this page
- Canadiens vs. LightningCanadiens won
- Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Under won
- Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Lightning won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.