NHL · resolved market
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc343b58637fe3e28e3301d223caaa63b8cdf1934ad3b257eaf566b4eac8b2471
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Canadiensof Lightning, Canadiens
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $116,610
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $116,740
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,610 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47a8…52f9backed Canadiens | 65c | 101,020$65,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,747.23 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Lightning | 35c | 62,000$21,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,700 | 403 | 51.9%209 W · 194 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Lightning | 36c | 20,388$7,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,339.68 | 186 | 41.9%78 W · 108 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Lightning | 36c | 8,320$2,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,995.1 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Lightning | 18c | 4,878$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.05 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b6…fa47backed Lightning | 36c | 4,267$1,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,536 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Lightning | 11c | 1,627$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Lightning | 36c | 1,300$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Lightning | 36c | 1,083$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.88 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Lightning | 36c | 1,069$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.51 | 287 | 49.8%143 W · 144 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…97d4backed Canadiens | 65c | 1,025$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.62 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…0df5backed Lightning | 36c | 960.56$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.8 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Lightning | 36c | 833.33$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Lightning | 16c | 656.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.46 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Canadiens | 64c | 654.03$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.45 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Lightning | 35c | 641.16$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.41 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Lightning | 36c | 598$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.28 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Lightning | 27c | 516.75$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.81 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe02…1204backed Lightning | 36c | 513.89$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41dc…6bbebacked Canadiens | 63c | 399.99$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…2d5ebacked Lightning | 37c | 396.93$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Lightning | 36c | 351.56$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.56 | 261 | 54%141 W · 120 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Lightning | 36c | 269.44$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 295 | 51.9%153 W · 142 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Canadiens | 76c | 251.4$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Lightning | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 322 | 51.9%167 W · 155 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…6a90backed Canadiens | 79c | 189.7$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.84 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Lightning | 36c | 159.05$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.26 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Canadiens | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Canadiens | 64c | 125$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Canadiens | 77c | 118$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fe…8726backed Canadiens | 65c | 117.81$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.81 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Lightning | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Canadiens | 74c | 105.4$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa928…bbaabacked Lightning | 36c | 102$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Lightning | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Lightning | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Canadiens | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Canadiens | 64c | 68.75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Canadiens | 64c | 63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 230 | 63%145 W · 85 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Lightning | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ec…3484backed Lightning | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x623a…5144backed Lightning | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x924d…3429backed Lightning | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Canadiens | 64c | 54.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Canadiens | 77c | 51.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Canadiens | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Lightning | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Canadiens | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Lightning | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 211 | 55.5%117 W · 94 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Lightning | 21c | 47.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 470 | 24%113 W · 357 L | -44.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…377bbacked Canadiens | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4b…c865backed Lightning | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Canadiens | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Canadiens | 64c | 32.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Canadiens | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 227 | 63.4%144 W · 83 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Canadiens | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 169 | 59.8%101 W · 68 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62ff…ec56backed Lightning | 35c | 30.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 129 | 47.3%61 W · 68 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe61d…5f97backed Canadiens | 65c | 27.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Canadiens | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Canadiens | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…a560backed Canadiens | 65c | 22.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d21…cb6ebacked Canadiens | 65c | 22.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Canadiens | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Canadiens | 65c | 16.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfa…0738backed Canadiens | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0129…96a8backed Canadiens | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)this page
- Canadiens vs. LightningCanadiens won
- Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Under won
- Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Under won
- Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.