College Football · resolved market
Spread: Marshall (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31eb23ebdb94dd359a0f3da7f0f83de2941562efe0445f26a7386c808447d496
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marshallof Marshall, Georgia State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,265
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,743
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,265 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed Marshall | 54c | 10,101$5,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,601.01 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Georgia State | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,100 | 272 | 46%125 W · 147 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Georgia State | 48c | 6,514$3,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,126.76 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Georgia State | 46c | 6,385$2,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,919.81 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Marshall | 49c | 5,948$2,914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,033.34 | 89 | 48.3%43 W · 46 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Marshall | 49c | 4,052$1,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,066.66 | 213 | 48.8%104 W · 109 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Marshall | 52c | 3,846$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,846.16 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Georgia State | 52c | 3,253$1,692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,691.57 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…e124backed Marshall | 54c | 1,111$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.11 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Marshall | 52c | 666$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.68 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Marshall | 51c | 507$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.78 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Georgia State | 53c | 420$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.48 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde46…a7afbacked Marshall | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Marshall | 50c | 305$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.5 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Georgia State | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…2422backed Marshall | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked Georgia State | 52c | 160$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.4 | 258 | 19.8%51 W · 207 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked Georgia State | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Georgia State | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +12.3wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Marshall | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Marshall | 52c | 50.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Marshall | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Georgia State | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d3…ada0backed Marshall | 51c | 30.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Georgia State | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 188 | 58%109 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Marshall (-7.5)this page
- Marshall vs. Georgia StateMarshall won
- Marshall vs. Georgia State: 1H MoneylineMarshall won
- O/U 62.5Under won
- Spread: Marshall (-6.5)Marshall won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.