College Football · resolved market
Florida State vs. NC State: O/U 59.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76e9137a25eb55d22c46f376696fe2b39d2a4ea7063df01732039bb1b7b8d1a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,832
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,832 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d4b…7b18backed Under | 50c | 24,500$12,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,250 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed Under | 53c | 19,221$10,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,073.78 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…c9fabacked Over | 50c | 13,900$6,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,950 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6c…853cbacked Over | 50c | 10,600$5,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…94babacked Under | 50c | 10,200$5,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,100 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x048b…da79backed Over | 50c | 10,200$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 6,315$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,999.92 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under | 52c | 6,027$3,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,892.8 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 48c | 6,000$2,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,880 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 5,344$2,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,458.34 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Over | 49c | 4,200$2,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,038.76 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 46c | 4,000$1,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,840 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1013…87d5backed Under | 54c | 4,000$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,840 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Over | 50c | 3,919$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,959.5 | 147 | 43.5%64 W · 83 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…e124backed Under | 52c | 1,538$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.46 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 49c | 1,531$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70a9…fe7bbacked Under | 52c | 599.99$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b9…9ce4backed Under | 54c | 555.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…51ebbacked Over | 50c | 410.96$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Over | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 47c | 390$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.3 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde46…a7afbacked Under | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Over | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked Under | 54c | 270.37$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.37 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdd…0cc1backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f9…86ecbacked Over | 49c | 199.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…2422backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6c…ce09backed Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -35%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…09a3backed Over | 50c | 39.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31be…2ed2backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc2…5786backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7468…7696backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa9…bad5backed Over | 46c | 30.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…4f11backed Under | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Under | 49c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +43%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 45cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2e…fe9abacked Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9b…1056backed Under | 54c | 18.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Florida State vs. NC State: O/U 59.5this page
- Florida State vs. NC StateNC State won
- Florida State vs. NC State: O/U 58.5Under won
- O/U 61.5Under won
- Spread: Florida State (-4.5)NC State won
- Spread: Florida State (-5.5)NC State won
- Spread: Florida State (-6.5)NC State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.