College Football · resolved market
Spread: Florida State (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb37173d3916c9b12edcad36c2b7baf04f61a65d3a6fd08ba1a586febce60f372
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NC Stateof Florida State, NC State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,041
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Florida State | 53c | 8,372$4,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,399.4 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50be…371bbacked NC State | 49c | 4,267$2,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,176.36 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed NC State | 45c | 3,500$1,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,925 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5276…74ddbacked NC State | 50c | 1,005$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Florida State | 52c | 235.06$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.23 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Florida State | 51c | 130.87$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.74 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Florida State | 54c | 108.34$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked NC State | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Florida State | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x591a…aec2backed Florida State | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd4…8f7abacked Florida State | 53c | 55.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfff6…f96ebacked Florida State | 53c | 55.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6de…2bdabacked NC State | 48c | 54.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x541e…739abacked NC State | 48c | 54.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked NC State | 53c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f98…1fe3backed Florida State | 53c | 44.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff9d…c586backed NC State | 48c | 43.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed NC State | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d3…ada0backed NC State | 48c | 31.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c8…b6f8backed Florida State | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Florida State | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Florida State (-5.5)this page
- Florida State vs. NC StateNC State won
- Florida State vs. NC State: O/U 58.5Under won
- Florida State vs. NC State: O/U 59.5Under won
- O/U 61.5Under won
- Spread: Florida State (-4.5)NC State won
- Spread: Florida State (-6.5)NC State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.