College Football · resolved market
Spread: Florida State (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb58ae11e6600a3963ad29c910aacd2a722078bc1d86ff63ad88e248b971434e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NC Stateof Florida State, NC State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,879,037
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,695,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,879,037 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2643…39aebacked NC State | 50c | 810,530$403,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406,584.93 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Florida State | 51c | 482,546$247,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247,593.58 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Florida State | 49c | 146,346$72,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72,086.61 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Florida State | 51c | 109,138$55,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55,117.64 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0549…c052backed Florida State | 52c | 70,739$36,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,776.92 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked NC State | 48c | 60,000$28,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,200 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed NC State | 48c | 43,715$21,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,543.74 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc350…3669backed Florida State | 48c | 40,000$19,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,200 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Florida State | 49c | 26,448$13,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,031.67 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Florida State | 48c | 20,040$9,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,618.86 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Florida State | 49c | 13,698$6,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,674.82 | 89 | 48.3%43 W · 46 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Florida State | 49c | 10,805$5,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,338.2 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Florida State | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,100 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Florida State | 49c | 7,438$3,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,644.61 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Florida State | 51c | 6,666$3,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,399.66 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed NC State | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,649.99 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed NC State | 48c | 4,500$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,340 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Florida State | 51c | 4,500$2,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,294.99 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed NC State | 49c | 4,256$2,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,191.12 | 118 | 51.7%61 W · 57 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bc…9dc9backed NC State | 49c | 4,082$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,081.63 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Florida State | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Florida State | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed NC State | 48c | 2,988$1,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,553.52 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +7.6wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +600.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Florida State | 53c | 2,727$1,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,442.16 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed NC State | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…f5b6backed NC State | 51c | 1,962$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.48 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Florida State | 52c | 1,774$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.46 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…70adbacked NC State | 48c | 1,052$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.08 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Florida State | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed NC State | 49c | 818$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.27 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +26%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked NC State | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.24 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Florida State | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Florida State | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed NC State | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Florida State | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9c…45e0backed NC State | 51c | 280$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed NC State | 48c | 250$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked NC State | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed NC State | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ba…f30dbacked Florida State | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed Florida State | 52c | 173.08$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Florida State | 52c | 120$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Florida State | 52c | 115$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed NC State | 50c | 112$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Florida State | 50c | 106$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 216 | 44.9%97 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed NC State | 50c | 101$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Florida State | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked NC State | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…fc6cbacked NC State | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…d2b9backed Florida State | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec8…eaefbacked Florida State | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked NC State | 75c | 99.48$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ac…a025backed Florida State | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Florida State | 54c | 92.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Florida State | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked Florida State | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 258 | 19.8%51 W · 207 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Florida State | 47c | 79.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked NC State | 48c | 67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55ee…eab7backed Florida State | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked NC State | 48c | 65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed NC State | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20a4…9f2ebacked NC State | 49c | 59.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf014…d442backed NC State | 48c | 52.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Florida State | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 241 | 57.3%138 W · 103 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Florida State | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99f2…c05cbacked NC State | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +165.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf6…002dbacked NC State | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked NC State | 50c | 39.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 160 | 50%80 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…d699backed Florida State | 52c | 36.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0f…91c6backed Florida State | 53c | 36.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Florida State | 51c | 30.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 160 | 44.4%71 W · 89 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a1…435cbacked Florida State | 52c | 27.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Florida State (-6.5)this page
- Florida State vs. NC StateNC State won
- Florida State vs. NC State: O/U 58.5Under won
- Florida State vs. NC State: O/U 59.5Under won
- O/U 61.5Under won
- Spread: Florida State (-4.5)NC State won
- Spread: Florida State (-5.5)NC State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.