NFL · resolved market
Big Game: Coin toss winner wins the Big Game?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa17893216b77b45969554f749455d333df71b7c37af5e04c2308a957eb4edce2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,389
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,520
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,389 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefc9…b337backed Yes | 50c | 15,842$7,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,920.92 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +9.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 49c | 10,731$5,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,472.77 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed No | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 251 | 37.5%94 W · 157 L | -18.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc029…21c6backed Yes | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed No | 49c | 1,052$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed No | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Yes | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…d24dbacked No | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84c…c193backed Yes | 51c | 758.82$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 60c | 650$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked No | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 362 | 46.7%169 W · 193 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b5…d9bfbacked Yes | 51c | 455.46$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed No | 50c | 420$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed No | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…6564backed No | 51c | 346.7$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.88 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 15c | 270.83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…e124backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed No | 50c | 199.96$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.98 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd73…3cc4backed No | 51c | 196.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.88 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed Yes | 49c | 164.05$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.9 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 50c | 161.04$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.52 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37d6…4c63backed Yes | 51c | 120.65$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Yes | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 121 | 41.3%50 W · 71 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed No | 50c | 113.25$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.63 | 307 | 43.6%134 W · 173 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd870…83dabacked No | 50c | 108$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x115d…f608backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c7…c0e2backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 130 | 24.6%32 W · 98 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…2422backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 162 | 43.8%71 W · 91 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d8…ebe1backed Yes | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x26a9…f6b7backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d49…638cbacked Yes | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaced…e23abacked Yes | 51c | 48.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe901…c594backed Yes | 51c | 47.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x902e…78f0backed No | 51c | 43.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…3045backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…f22fbacked No | 51c | 39.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26bb…4d0fbacked Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a2…b3cdbacked No | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49e5…8933backed Yes | 51c | 35.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8609…4897backed No | 49c | 30.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb342…cc01backed No | 49c | 30.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab08…707abacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3e…f6f4backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…ed48backed No | 49c | 29.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdab2…24ffbacked Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda82…eedabacked Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe43c…ccd5backed No | 49c | 29.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…e416backed No | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd528…042bbacked Yes | 51c | 20.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f55…580cbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3d…f9ddbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd013…5de5backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…e2a2backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d72…f41dbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.