College Football · resolved market
Kennesaw State vs. Western Michigan: O/U 47.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8455868e89bcf1d2ea69c6c736c39e0e95965161e2902b0cca8aee5a1c9ca462
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $120,478
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $121,782
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,478 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Under | 52c | 67,780$35,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,779.54 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 49c | 39,101$19,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,159.6 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed Over | 51c | 17,471$8,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,928 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Over | 48c | 13,567$6,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,512.31 | 89 | 48.3%43 W · 46 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 49c | 4,637$2,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,253.78 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Under | 51c | 4,126$2,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,014.55 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fa…a26cbacked Under | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.78 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 51cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 53c | 1,660$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.91 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…e124backed Over | 51c | 1,569$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Under | 50c | 1,451$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Under | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 50c | 559.3$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.65 | 118 | 51.7%61 W · 57 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…b00bbacked Under | 51c | 490$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.1 | 80 | 78.8%63 W · 17 L | +9.9wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +21%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…e6e2backed Under | 48c | 416.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.56 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +8.7wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Under | 50c | 400$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7402…31eabacked Under | 51c | 337.25$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.25 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Under | 50c | 260$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 109 | 44%48 W · 61 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 49c | 208.06$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.11 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…2422backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6422…a346backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +5.4wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…09debacked Under | 52c | 188.74$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.52 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Under | 47c | 182.05$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.49 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 50c | 129.68$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.84 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Under | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…a94bbacked Under | 51c | 90$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 49c | 87.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 72.55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…b15fbacked Over | 51c | 64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b8…799cbacked Over | 51c | 59.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…f75cbacked Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe41e…eca9backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…7976backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1898…3f18backed Under | 50c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…c066backed Under | 50c | 27.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b46…1e90backed Over | 50c | 25.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 269 | 39.8%107 W · 162 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Over | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa46…1559backed Over | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…2f86backed Over | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Over | 76c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kennesaw State vs. Western Michigan: O/U 47.5this page
- Kennesaw State vs. Western MichiganWestern Michigan won
- Kennesaw State vs. Western Michigan: 1H MoneylineWestern Michigan won
- Kennesaw State vs. Western Michigan: O/U 48.5Under won
- O/U 49.5Under won
- Spread: Western Michigan (-3.5)Western Michigan won
- Spread: Western Michigan (-4.5)Western Michigan won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.