College Football · resolved market
Spread: Western Michigan (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd232ce8388e989f674e247787cfae6a3bff4531903fa389625d340fe393cb81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Western Michiganof Western Michigan, Kennesaw State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,391
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,964
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,391 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Kennesaw State | 53c | 37,703$19,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,937.38 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Western Michigan | 47c | 12,041$5,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,381.66 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Western Michigan | 47c | 11,088$5,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,876.64 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7178…0c07backed Western Michigan | 48c | 5,032$2,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,611.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Western Michigan | 47c | 3,762$1,767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,994.85 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Western Michigan | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,590 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Western Michigan | 48c | 633$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.09 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0432…1660backed Western Michigan | 49c | 546.79$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.86 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Western Michigan | 48c | 541.67$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.67 | 213 | 48.8%104 W · 109 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…6849backed Western Michigan | 47c | 485.38$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.25 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Western Michigan | 49c | 277.55$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.55 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Kennesaw State | 51c | 237$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.87 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Western Michigan | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Western Michigan | 48c | 194.23$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.97 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2195…16f9backed Kennesaw State | 52c | 189.75$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.67 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked Western Michigan | 49c | 112.59$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.59 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Western Michigan | 47c | 111.26$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.58 | 284 | 40.8%116 W · 168 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78e5…de63backed Western Michigan | 49c | 103$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf642…0c19backed Western Michigan | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Western Michigan | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Western Michigan | 46c | 96.17$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.93 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Kennesaw State | 53c | 81$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…a045backed Kennesaw State | 53c | 73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Western Michigan | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 160 | 50%80 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Kennesaw State | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc21a…c2c3backed Kennesaw State | 54c | 33.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Western Michigan | 48c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ff…db1dbacked Western Michigan | 47c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Western Michigan | 48c | 28.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84b8…d83abacked Kennesaw State | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Western Michigan | 47c | 28.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…c85dbacked Western Michigan | 48c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe13a…6bb5backed Western Michigan | 47c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…c47fbacked Kennesaw State | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Kennesaw State | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbd…db24backed Kennesaw State | 54c | 19.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Western Michigan (-3.5)this page
- Kennesaw State vs. Western MichiganWestern Michigan won
- Kennesaw State vs. Western Michigan: 1H MoneylineWestern Michigan won
- Kennesaw State vs. Western Michigan: O/U 47.5Under won
- Kennesaw State vs. Western Michigan: O/U 48.5Under won
- O/U 49.5Under won
- Spread: Western Michigan (-4.5)Western Michigan won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.