Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54d63713c8802102f64ee5134c567576c6bb43b458e218c8475f67a20f466b06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, PlayTime
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $687,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $783,080
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $687,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 421 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Aurora | 62c | 71,346$44,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,345.68 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…9a4abacked PlayTime | 43c | 30,287$13,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,005.88 | 234 | 35.9%84 W · 150 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked PlayTime | 35c | 24,510$8,486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,485.92 | 893 | 41.5%371 W · 522 L | +23.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…d49fbacked PlayTime | 48c | 20,942$9,977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,976.71 | 174 | 52.3%91 W · 83 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed PlayTime | 41c | 20,590$8,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,541.53 | 451 | 39.2%177 W · 274 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked PlayTime | 34c | 16,571$5,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,580.44 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Aurora | 65c | 13,801$8,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,817.22 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Aurora | 58c | 11,953$6,974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,978.95 | 963 | 57.3%552 W · 411 L | +48.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99ad…3624backed PlayTime | 29c | 11,321$3,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,300 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked PlayTime | 32c | 11,020$3,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,575.49 | 1,179 | 43.1%508 W · 671 L | +41.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf201…527ebacked PlayTime | 26c | 10,616$2,807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,806.55 | 325 | 49.8%162 W · 163 L | +23.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Aurora | 61c | 10,053$6,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,937.06 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Aurora | 61c | 9,277$5,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,629.48 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked Aurora | 51c | 9,037$4,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,386.29 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08c2…c023backed PlayTime | 30c | 8,744$2,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,644.45 | 489 | 54.6%267 W · 222 L | +23.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Aurora | 60c | 8,050$4,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,196.62 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa88…85a5backed PlayTime | 33c | 7,000$2,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,275 | 696 | 44.5%310 W · 386 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97fd…3313backed PlayTime | 28c | 6,248$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,749.51 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked PlayTime | 29c | 6,020$1,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,745.8 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1de…21f5backed PlayTime | 35c | 6,000$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 299 | 52.2%156 W · 143 L | +19.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4aec…4ce9backed Aurora | 76c | 5,635$4,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,328.92 | 306 | 67.3%206 W · 100 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b0…329ebacked PlayTime | 40c | 5,500$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,199.65 | 800 | 56%448 W · 352 L | +23.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd66…664fbacked Aurora | 70c | 5,000$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,499.99 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed Aurora | 59c | 4,500$2,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,854.99 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…5700backed Aurora | 62c | 4,351$2,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,659.23 | 686 | 49.7%341 W · 345 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed Aurora | 72c | 4,192$2,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,193.12 | 303 | 57.1%173 W · 130 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…b62abacked Aurora | 63c | 3,974$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,474.4 | 393 | 43.3%170 W · 223 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b4…b46bbacked PlayTime | 36c | 3,810$1,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,371.45 | 242 | 46.7%113 W · 129 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2deb…2b13backed PlayTime | 40c | 3,736$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…15ffbacked PlayTime | 41c | 3,675$1,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,515.07 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.25per pick | 43cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f5…3d04backed PlayTime | 30c | 3,664$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100.35 | 504 | 49.2%248 W · 256 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…8ff2backed PlayTime | 6c | 3,377$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.62 | 471 | 46.1%217 W · 254 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0f…1305backed Aurora | 72c | 3,333$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$933.24 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…4d12backed Aurora | 64c | 3,238$2,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,177.65 | 350 | 62.6%219 W · 131 L | +44.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc156…f76cbacked PlayTime | 41c | 3,234$1,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,322.16 | 165 | 47.9%79 W · 86 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb2…5c04backed PlayTime | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69bf…0c5dbacked PlayTime | 38c | 3,000$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,129.99 | 365 | 47.7%174 W · 191 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9679…9315backed Aurora | 67c | 2,985$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985.07 | 160 | 58.8%94 W · 66 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora | 68c | 2,980$2,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.97 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3f…6deebacked Aurora | 66c | 2,964$1,951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,012.44 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…b9b4backed Aurora | 55c | 2,903$1,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,315.23 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a6…03abbacked PlayTime | 31c | 2,902$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.5 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3752…2f08backed PlayTime | 33c | 2,900$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.99 | 344 | 42.2%145 W · 199 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked Aurora | 79c | 2,749$2,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.25 | 535 | 58.9%315 W · 220 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed PlayTime | 32c | 2,576$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.51 | 293 | 48.5%142 W · 151 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e24…7014backed Aurora | 66c | 2,452$1,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.06 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948a…d1a4backed PlayTime | 47c | 2,446$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 241 | 54.8%132 W · 109 L | +13.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9a…a06bbacked PlayTime | 9c | 2,369$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.33 | 378 | 11.1%42 W · 336 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c3…f740backed PlayTime | 34c | 2,348$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.45 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked PlayTime | 25c | 2,281$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.08 | 1,270 | 45.1%573 W · 697 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04f6…f24abacked PlayTime | 26c | 2,198$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.61 | 503 | 47.1%237 W · 266 L | +14.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96d7…3a17backed PlayTime | 30c | 2,190$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebe…5e6fbacked Aurora | 62c | 2,168$1,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.75 | 257 | 52.1%134 W · 123 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed PlayTime | 36c | 2,105$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.85 | 602 | 51.2%308 W · 294 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96a8…6107backed PlayTime | 24c | 2,058$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df4…153cbacked Aurora | 62c | 2,007$1,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.71 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked Aurora | 65c | 2,000$1,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.05 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed Aurora | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.99 | 795 | 59.4%472 W · 323 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked Aurora | 63c | 2,000$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.99 | 117 | 33.3%39 W · 78 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x048f…9992backed PlayTime | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 211 | 0.5%1 W · 210 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -99.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d01…27cbbacked PlayTime | 48c | 1,999$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.69 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…362bbacked Aurora | 40c | 1,964$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,178.4 | 240 | 34.2%82 W · 158 L | -17.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…7c42backed Aurora | 56c | 1,843$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.65 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31cb…2442backed Aurora | 52c | 1,834$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.93 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed PlayTime | 34c | 1,764$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.74 | 413 | 51.8%214 W · 199 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed PlayTime | 31c | 1,750$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.5 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked Aurora | 55c | 1,579$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.18 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked PlayTime | 33c | 1,575$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.36 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc714…d152backed Aurora | 59c | 1,575$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.24 | 211 | 58.3%123 W · 88 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…54c4backed PlayTime | 35c | 1,571$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 292 | 40.8%119 W · 173 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb7…7028backed PlayTime | 38c | 1,517$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.01 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08b8…e7dabacked PlayTime | 38c | 1,510$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.77 | 308 | 54.9%169 W · 139 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3de…6fe8backed Aurora | 65c | 1,501$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.39 | 100 | 75%75 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa14c…23a1backed PlayTime | 37c | 1,500$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.29 | 351 | 51.3%180 W · 171 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…c82abacked PlayTime | 40c | 1,484$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.27 | 612 | 56%343 W · 269 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f56…d7dbbacked PlayTime | 34c | 1,463$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.27 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed PlayTime | 36c | 1,448$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.68 | 569 | 55.5%316 W · 253 L | +22.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05a7…42e6backed Aurora | 68c | 1,448$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.34 | 410 | 56.8%233 W · 177 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Aurora | 64c | 1,435$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.75 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd953…a9c0backed PlayTime | 35c | 1,431$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb9…1d15backed PlayTime | 35c | 1,429$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb55…51ddbacked Aurora | 77c | 1,402$1,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.5 | 353 | 61.2%216 W · 137 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3b…be27backed PlayTime | 37c | 1,365$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.18 | 210 | 47.6%100 W · 110 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked PlayTime | 23c | 1,348$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.12 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…e3a8backed Aurora | 63c | 1,333$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.47 | 252 | 66.3%167 W · 85 L | +20.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Aurora | 68c | 1,314$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.6 | 772 | 58.5%452 W · 320 L | +74.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9c…e006backed Aurora | 79c | 1,284$1,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.28 | 226 | 63.3%143 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1943…1561backed Aurora | 56c | 1,278$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.47 | 453 | 52.1%236 W · 217 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…5667backed PlayTime | 30c | 1,267$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.1 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x958c…a328backed PlayTime | 37c | 1,236$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.21 | 283 | 47%133 W · 150 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…fe5dbacked PlayTime | 36c | 1,216$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.6 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…ed83backed PlayTime | 36c | 1,200$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426 | 262 | 47.7%125 W · 137 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked PlayTime | 16c | 1,150$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.1 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked PlayTime | 33c | 1,099$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.99 | 1,151 | 47.8%550 W · 601 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…38e8backed PlayTime | 5c | 1,096$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 324 | 3.1%10 W · 314 L | -11.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed Aurora | 63c | 1,075$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.24 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed PlayTime | 35c | 1,065$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.16 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…03a6backed Aurora | 54c | 1,050$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a85…ff94backed Aurora | 61c | 1,050$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.28 | 293 | 52.9%155 W · 138 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd0…cdd6backed PlayTime | 48c | 1,039$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs PlayTime (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group BAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs PlayTime - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.