Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea84a6ccb0aa71ebef207c3511f01cc5612609f19eef42a6b5e931c99f8c595f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,350
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,350 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5680…7f79backed Yes | 55c | 499.28$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.83 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed No | 56c | 433.73$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.4 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 368.56$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.16 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 20c | 291.48$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 266$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 34c | 256.77$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.39 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 10c | 238.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 43c | 219.3$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.3 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 63c | 209.05$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.89 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 36c | 198.82$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.23 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…c493backed No | 61c | 164.79$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.08 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 148.74$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.96 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 28c | 145.79$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.72 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6aa…43a5backed No | 55c | 138.11$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 59c | 133.29$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.92 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 45c | 120$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed Yes | 25c | 109.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.86 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 109.07$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.86 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 70c | 102.63$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 62c | 96.2$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 41c | 84.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x278a…dfddbacked No | 71c | 68.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 69c | 66.67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 60c | 66.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 63.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 58c | 63.45$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.69 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 56c | 61.32$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 27c | 59.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 43c | 59.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 25c | 57.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 62c | 57.69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…c866backed Yes | 51c | 56.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 66c | 54.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 54c | 54.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 54.12$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b35…bfa7backed No | 56c | 51.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 57c | 50.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 36c | 50.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 29c | 50.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fde…b480backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 57c | 49.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 34c | 46.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed No | 32c | 44.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 37c | 38.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c38…d6a6backed Yes | 34c | 37.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 67c | 36.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef7e…aee8backed Yes | 32c | 35.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 57c | 35.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9480…6797backed Yes | 41c | 33.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 39c | 32.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5851…db4ebacked Yes | 66c | 32.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 67c | 31.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d9…4348backed No | 56c | 29.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 67c | 29.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 44c | 28.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6341…c64dbacked Yes | 68c | 27.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…d10cbacked No | 53c | 25.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x796a…e815backed Yes | 43c | 24.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 56c | 24.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 43c | 23.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 44c | 23.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3221…f1bebacked No | 65c | 22.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 49c | 22.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecd…3923backed Yes | 63c | 19.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -80%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed Yes | 58c | 19.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 65c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on April 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.