Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a4a6c94a2526728f416305264c62b01dcfbc97644902c0f61095256719cb24c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,479
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,995
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,479 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 747.27$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.06 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 6c | 624.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 3c | 599.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 362.3$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.36 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 25c | 331.08$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.85 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 18c | 298.61$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 73c | 261.81$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.78 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 77c | 247.02$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.96 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…c493backed Yes | 31c | 213.45$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.86 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 5c | 201.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 167.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 43c | 133.86$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.11 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 68c | 117.16$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 63c | 117.1$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.91 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 114.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 73c | 111.21$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 68c | 110.89$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 39c | 107.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.37 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa8…39c2backed Yes | 23c | 99.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 103 | 11.7%12 W · 91 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…7104backed Yes | 31c | 99.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 19c | 93.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 78c | 89.12$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 68c | 87.93$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 29c | 87.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 35c | 81.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 16c | 79.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 64c | 74.93$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…907bbacked No | 64c | 67.48$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked Yes | 18c | 60.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe15…6b8ebacked Yes | 42c | 60.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 28c | 59.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 34c | 56.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 73c | 52.54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 21c | 51.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa530…88f6backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 49.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fde…b480backed Yes | 29c | 49.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 70c | 48.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 69c | 47.37$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 41c | 47.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 69c | 41.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…dc99backed Yes | 36c | 41.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +122.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9e6cbacked No | 73c | 39.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 80c | 38.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 64c | 38.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c38…d6a6backed Yes | 39c | 37.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 62c | 35.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc927…efd8backed Yes | 42c | 33.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +277.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 69c | 32.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 62c | 31.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 62c | 30.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…a752backed No | 65c | 29.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 67c | 28.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa456…6d13backed Yes | 36c | 28.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 79c | 27.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 63c | 26.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 71c | 24.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 64c | 23.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 71c | 20.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 73c | 20.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 67c | 19.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd088…a3eabacked No | 80c | 19.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 79 | 72.2%57 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 72c | 18.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 61c | 17.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 70c | 15.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on April 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.