Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a314c294868c2e712c24b3c6f6680aa86dbe7868d93baae781dfa0405b425c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 688.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.36 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 13c | 646.55$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.92 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…907bbacked Yes | 12c | 411.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.66 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 16c | 308.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 79c | 306.02$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.85 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 10c | 294.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 10c | 283.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 9c | 281.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 265.42$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.35 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 23c | 253.28$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.47 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 22c | 240.72$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.83 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…8c67backed Yes | 17c | 237.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 24c | 204.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.06 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 79c | 185.84$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 12c | 168.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed Yes | 17c | 150.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 20c | 148.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa8…39c2backed Yes | 14c | 146.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 103 | 11.7%12 W · 91 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…abbabacked Yes | 23c | 138.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 138$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 11c | 115.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 17c | 113.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x561a…7be2backed Yes | 15c | 106.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…4fd0backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -10.5wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 76c | 97.9$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 11c | 95.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 20c | 95.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…a752backed Yes | 19c | 95.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 26c | 93.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 19c | 92.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x600c…8bd4backed Yes | 18c | 90$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 19c | 89.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39da…5318backed Yes | 25c | 81.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked No | 76c | 77.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 73c | 74.91$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 21c | 66.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 57.25$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 26c | 50.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 79c | 49.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 80c | 44.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc1…99e6backed No | 71c | 27.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 69cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…7d89backed No | 80c | 18.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 76c | 16.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on April 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.