Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5207ef4733cf741c62ee6b55e6571cd8dddbde3ba712d808766f583ce06fd626
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,155
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,310
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,155 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 20c | 1,532$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.07 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 19c | 433.42$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.41 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 14c | 306.07$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 78c | 255.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.31 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…fda6backed Yes | 14c | 251.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 20c | 210.92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 8c | 209.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 203.53$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 12c | 187.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 23c | 152$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…d10cbacked Yes | 19c | 151.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 146.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 14c | 132.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 20c | 124.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 116.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 17c | 115.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 18c | 109.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed Yes | 10c | 107.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 10c | 102.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 12c | 101.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 72c | 97.4$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 27c | 97.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 96.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc174…9d97backed Yes | 19c | 91.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 14c | 90.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 79c | 80.1$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 68c | 71.26$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…6063backed Yes | 33c | 57.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 76c | 55.3$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 75c | 52.55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 71c | 50.69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe73c…dd15backed Yes | 22c | 45.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 35.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 80c | 31.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…9678backed No | 80c | 31.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf64f…99d7backed No | 69c | 28.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 73c | 28.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 69c | 25.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 76c | 25.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec87…43f9backed No | 70c | 22.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 20.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 71c | 19.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 80c | 18.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 80c | 17.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245e…eab4backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 85 | 74.1%63 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 77cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb345…23d5backed No | 79c | 14.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 66°F or higher on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on April 24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.