Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b5edc73f40f1ca55bf79395043be570a02716662aed7bff0c20618bce4f813c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,726
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,726 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 15c | 1,286$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.31 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed Yes | 25c | 1,029$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.75 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 79c | 565.79$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.61 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 66c | 556.55$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.14 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…fda6backed No | 75c | 500.97$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.24 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 324.07$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.48 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 27c | 318.54$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.07 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 72c | 277.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.77 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 78c | 250.98$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.21 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 67c | 222.86$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.62 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc89…095cbacked No | 69c | 204.94$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.63 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked Yes | 24c | 200$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 191.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 30c | 163.03$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.43 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 13c | 162.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 22c | 159.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 146.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…6063backed Yes | 13c | 136.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 129.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 32c | 123.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 24c | 113.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 68c | 105.98$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 26c | 99.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 52c | 91.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…4ac3backed Yes | 40c | 84.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked Yes | 36c | 83.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 17c | 69.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 80c | 67.72$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc174…9d97backed Yes | 39c | 63.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…0b22backed Yes | 33c | 50.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 65c | 46.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 74c | 40.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 38c | 40.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567c…70a5backed No | 61c | 40.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 61c | 38.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 74c | 32.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…e145backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 78c | 29.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked No | 71c | 29.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 74c | 26.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9d…abe7backed No | 76c | 25.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed No | 74c | 25.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 66c | 25.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 64c | 25.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 78c | 24.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 76c | 23.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 61c | 21.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed No | 74c | 20.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 76c | 19.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 66c | 17.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…649dbacked No | 72c | 16.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf64f…99d7backed No | 64c | 15.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15cf…e50ebacked No | 72c | 13.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 78c | 13.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…8f6cbacked No | 75c | 13.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 66°F or higher on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on April 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.