Mls · resolved market
Nashville SC vs. New York City FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4486a748d432556a1bed90ff5f3eea62040fca0f9175461d1417c0f007f07a44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,211
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,681
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,211 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 53c | 9,378$4,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,407.49 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 48c | 9,182$4,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,394.61 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 52c | 4,337$2,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,067.36 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 52c | 2,905$1,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,396.97 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 48c | 2,406$1,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150.6 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 46c | 1,539$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.14 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 50c | 1,525$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.43 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 50c | 1,361$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.64 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 36c | 1,204$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.75 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 47c | 801.31$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.62 | 263 | 45.2%119 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd881…af24backed Under | 57c | 721.41$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 46c | 658.99$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.18 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under | 47c | 505.32$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 200 | 43%86 W · 114 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 35c | 481$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.96 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebfd…cba6backed Over | 47c | 465.29$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 54c | 399.87$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.54 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 47c | 360$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.2 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 49c | 281.03$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.61 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 49c | 281.03$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.61 | 195 | 60%117 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 48c | 279.48$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.12 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf0…72cebacked Under | 22c | 272.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 77c | 258.16$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.67 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 245$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.53 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 52c | 230$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.2 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 72c | 229$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.48 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 47c | 225$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.89 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 53c | 197.29$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.56 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 45c | 148.19$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.69 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 44c | 115.85$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.62 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…38ccbacked Over | 53c | 93.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.46 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…af1bbacked Under | 47c | 89.36$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Over | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +10.7wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…3150backed Under | 48c | 73.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 47c | 67.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 50c | 66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Over | 44c | 64.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 89 | 71.9%64 W · 25 L | +17.2wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xecda…6f0abacked Over | 55c | 64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 45c | 59.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 46c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 46c | 54.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 186 | 55.4%103 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 222 | 69.4%154 W · 68 L | +31.4wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 191 | 72.3%138 W · 53 L | +36.8wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 187 | 74.3%139 W · 48 L | +33.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 156 | 76.9%120 W · 36 L | +32.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 54c | 44.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 48c | 39.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 75c | 38.19$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…d10cbacked Under | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c8…5312backed Over | 52c | 26.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd43…f481backed Under | 47c | 26.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1be5…9d53backed Over | 54c | 25.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ad…2dccbacked Over | 51c | 24.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Over | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 199 | 60.8%121 W · 78 L | +22.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nashville SC vs. New York City FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Nashville SC vs. New York City FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Nashville SC vs. New York City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Nashville SC vs. New York City FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Nashville SC vs. New York City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Nashville SC (-1.5)New York City FC won
- Spread: Nashville SC (-2.5)New York City FC won
- Spread: New York City FC (-1.5)Nashville SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.