Mls · resolved market
Nashville SC vs. New York City FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc8b026254733abcbaf885552f80ecf4cf012bbefdaf654c6b24f4e356fbf311
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,149
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,149 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 77c | 8,814$6,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,063.29 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…ad4bbacked Over | 17c | 6,058$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 23c | 5,762$1,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,315 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 15c | 5,449$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.68 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 76c | 1,687$1,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.9 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 33c | 1,212$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.44 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a8…2282backed Over | 30c | 1,204$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.82 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 77c | 869.45$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.68 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 31c | 464.52$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 243 | 26.3%64 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 69c | 212.81$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.13 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 66c | 190$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.85 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 60c | 99.18$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.18 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 24c | 64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 59c | 55.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 30c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Under | 63c | 50.79$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 65c | 28.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea47…d64bbacked Under | 61c | 27.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nashville SC vs. New York City FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Nashville SC vs. New York City FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Nashville SC vs. New York City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Nashville SC vs. New York City FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Nashville SC vs. New York City FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Nashville SC (-1.5)New York City FC won
- Spread: Nashville SC (-2.5)New York City FC won
- Spread: New York City FC (-1.5)Nashville SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.