Mls · resolved market
Spread: Nashville SC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7a117dcd942eee50794452eef9888aedce0958eace961fab959c3fd3bf532cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York City FCof Nashville SC, New York City FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,650
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,553
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,650 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Nashville SC | 27c | 734.29$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.62 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1362…f403backed Nashville SC | 27c | 636.77$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.93 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed New York City FC | 73c | 492.66$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.11 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York City FC | 71c | 472.63$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.11 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked New York City FC | 71c | 223.7$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.95 | 107 | 55.1%59 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Nashville SC | 29c | 178.12$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…38ccbacked Nashville SC | 31c | 163.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Nashville SC | 27c | 159.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 103 | 19.4%20 W · 83 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Nashville SC | 34c | 151$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.34 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed New York City FC | 75c | 142.98$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Nashville SC | 18c | 93.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Nashville SC | 35c | 86.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed New York City FC | 70c | 84.81$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked New York City FC | 72c | 76.17$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed New York City FC | 73c | 75.14$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 195 | 60%117 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed New York City FC | 69c | 63.32$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Nashville SC | 27c | 59.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked New York City FC | 71c | 59.51$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked New York City FC | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Nashville SC | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 186 | 55.4%103 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Nashville SC | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed New York City FC | 73c | 43.04$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed New York City FC | 73c | 40.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed New York City FC | 73c | 36.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed New York City FC | 73c | 21.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 122 | 54.9%67 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked New York City FC | 69c | 15.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nashville SC (-1.5)this page
- Nashville SC vs. New York City FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Nashville SC vs. New York City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Nashville SC vs. New York City FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Nashville SC vs. New York City FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Nashville SC vs. New York City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Nashville SC (-2.5)New York City FC won
- Spread: New York City FC (-1.5)Nashville SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.