AI · resolved market
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $800b on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fd8fa31b1ee99e1d72bdde2e0358414064575d90385b6619f8a8c888691dd5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,308
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,308 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32e5…931abacked No | 3c | 1,469$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked No | 15c | 1,215$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.74 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 2c | 976.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 7c | 954.71$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.63 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 2c | 890$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736f…deaabacked No | 16c | 877.48$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.22 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 7c | 681.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 2c | 644.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x699d…4260backed Yes | 51c | 420.39$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.09 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed No | 8c | 410.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 7c | 380$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 3c | 363$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…31f5backed No | 18c | 309.2$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.66 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 7c | 277.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 4c | 265.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…a7c5backed No | 13c | 219.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 72 | 23.6%17 W · 55 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 8c | 192.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 29c | 191.91$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.73 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa4…cd4ebacked Yes | 42c | 182.58$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.58 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1964…5e04backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 21c | 86.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 23c | 74.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b30…100fbacked No | 22c | 45.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 54c | 39.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 57c | 35.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 46c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 142 | 81%115 W · 27 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $800b on June 30?this page
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $660b and $680b on June 30?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $720b and $740b on June 30?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $740b and $760b on June 30?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $760b and $780b on June 30?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $660b on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.