IPO · resolved market
Will Innio's market cap be between $20B and $23B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f83009a774bfef025a48ce930c41ef8239cbc3d8d73fba270ec483640b8ac6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,895
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,895 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 21c | 1,255$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.55 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34b0…d620backed Yes | 30c | 699.94$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.17 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked No | 76c | 696.95$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.52 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 14c | 427$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.41 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c30…7673backed No | 77c | 384.11$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.53 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff04…d971backed Yes | 28c | 325.71$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 79c | 260$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.31 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb656…42e6backed Yes | 20c | 186.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 28c | 172$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 78c | 118.78$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc732…45b3backed Yes | 26c | 110$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…db62backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 98.89$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 91.28$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 70c | 87.02$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a2…c296backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 77c | 39.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed No | 79c | 34.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 79c | 31.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 74c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 26.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x736f…deaabacked No | 74c | 21.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…815ebacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…3525backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a17…d7f8backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0893…94f4backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.64 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Innio's market cap be between $20B and $23B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Innio not IPO before August 2026?No won
- Will Innio's market cap be at least $29B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Innio's market cap be between $17B and $20B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Innio's market cap be between $23B and $26B at market close on IPO day?Yes won
- Will Innio's market cap be between $26B and $29B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.