IPO · resolved market
Will Innio's market cap be between $17B and $20B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ad7e489ae9f326a3748b8903b4ab8a7edce834f700cd4f3b0c8d6c407b97323
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,615
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,956
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,615 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 17c | 2,333$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.47 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7650…fac1backed No | 74c | 1,998$1,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff04…d971backed Yes | 17c | 808.64$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked Yes | 26c | 400$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 380$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 16c | 287.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 63 | 27%17 W · 46 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 71c | 283.5$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.12 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 18c | 227$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.94 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfda…28c0backed Yes | 19c | 221$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e03…beaabacked Yes | 21c | 220$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f19…bf1ebacked Yes | 16c | 163.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 25c | 161.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 23c | 156.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…1989backed Yes | 21c | 154.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2a…a4a4backed Yes | 23c | 146.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4de…3920backed Yes | 26c | 108$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfc…9cf9backed No | 79c | 64.02$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbad…9e4bbacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 25c | 57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9f…8473backed No | 77c | 15.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 75c | 14.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Innio's market cap be between $17B and $20B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Innio not IPO before August 2026?No won
- Will Innio's market cap be at least $29B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Innio's market cap be between $20B and $23B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Innio's market cap be between $23B and $26B at market close on IPO day?Yes won
- Will Innio's market cap be between $26B and $29B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.