AI · resolved market
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $690b on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62d15abd1060e2059eb15d7f15b03d0e86a6386c65ad82532e0dd3562f057e93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,517
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,517 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked Yes | 44c | 2,155$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,205.04 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,345$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 1,368 | 6.8%93 W · 1,275 L | -20.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 40c | 623.13$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 51c | 550$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.5 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…c770backed Yes | 33c | 507.67$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.3 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 318.5$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.57 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed No | 51c | 293.63$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 10c | 232.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7db0…8c18backed Yes | 46c | 204.05$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.55 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +40%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 30c | 160$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 80c | 138$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.02 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 135.19$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.29 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x789e…3bb1backed Yes | 65c | 118.14$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 70c | 102.68$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.18 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed3…7ad4backed Yes | 29c | 102.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.43 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b11…ce49backed Yes | 21c | 102.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +387.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5b…5f59backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 68c | 86.1$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.74 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd57b…53c9backed Yes | 31c | 81.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 50c | 77.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bd…e856backed Yes | 23c | 58.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +86%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 23c | 48.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 67c | 46.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 74c | 45.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90a8…ed23backed Yes | 40c | 44.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +148.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 62c | 42.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6315…10edbacked Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 36c | 39.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 56c | 38.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 898 | 17%153 W · 745 L | -146.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x96c0…b412backed Yes | 56c | 31.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed No | 78c | 25.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb7…891ebacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…6c7bbacked No | 73c | 24.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2,281.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x011a…4decbacked Yes | 59c | 21.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 58c | 19.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -4.4wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 72c | 14.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $690b on May 31?this page
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $620b and $630b on May 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $630b and $640b on May 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on May 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $650b and $660b on May 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $660b and $670b on May 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $670b and $680b on May 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $680b and $690b on May 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $610b on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.