AI · resolved market
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $40B by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x197a2b85c3cac5cc62da3f697776475a5ab9191b0719f43985cdd625a3521612
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,006
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,006 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a08…cce8backed Yes | 21c | 1,340$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.91 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 78c | 1,140$892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.8 | 460 | 38.9%179 W · 281 L | -31.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac4f…f7e8backed Yes | 28c | 1,095$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8df7…36c4backed No | 79c | 966.79$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.19 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 62c | 221.99$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.35 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Yes | 27c | 213.02$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.71 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc759…b965backed Yes | 30c | 181.12$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked No | 67c | 150$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 143$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.82 | 731 | 35.6%260 W · 471 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 71c | 130.12$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 34c | 125$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed Yes | 38c | 106.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…31f5backed Yes | 40c | 94.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7976…f3dcbacked Yes | 33c | 86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31ab…86cfbacked Yes | 41c | 77.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 55c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…87e1backed No | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac2d…a9c4backed Yes | 35c | 59.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 40c | 58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed No | 64c | 54.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 67 | 65.7%44 W · 23 L | +13.8wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 73 | 23.3%17 W · 56 L | -8.2wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2e…0873backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 70c | 49.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 64c | 47.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +6.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x807c…f1e3backed Yes | 30c | 40.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 42c | 36.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a21…d26abacked Yes | 36c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 60c | 34.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 34c | 32.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 894 | 17.1%153 W · 741 L | -145.2wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 42c | 31.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 70c | 27.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 323 | 29.1%94 W · 229 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 38c | 27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe198…740cbacked Yes | 58c | 25.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd7a…dc52backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…9828backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5e…ff63backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd572…6270backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -45%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9748…91e1backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $40B by June 30?this page
- Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $41.5B by June 30?Yes won
- Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $42.5B by June 30?No won
- Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $42B by June 30?Yes won
- Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $45B by June 30?No won
- Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by June 30?No won
- Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $60B by June 30?No won
- Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $37.5B by June 30?No won
- Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $41B by June 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.