IPO · resolved market
Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be between $3.25B and $3.75B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec83d1304f538850a1d685b1c2987c4150fc86fa505db9a5c1d920043f50fe68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,046
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,407
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,046 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 56c | 2,611$1,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,459.96 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34b0…d620backed Yes | 41c | 2,077$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.77 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 63c | 1,740$1,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.22 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 25c | 1,389$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.11 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked Yes | 38c | 1,009$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.48 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 39c | 586.76$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.6 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 36c | 488.02$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.78 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 66c | 440$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.6 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 61c | 291.14$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.74 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 248.74$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.49 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 59c | 230$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.3 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.5wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed No | 60c | 228.58$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.43 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 35c | 187.5$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.63 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 159.1$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.4 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a2…169bbacked Yes | 38c | 149.74$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a97…0a4dbacked Yes | 40c | 145.28$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 65c | 143.86$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.35 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 35c | 139.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 120$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06de…cf4cbacked Yes | 64c | 114.53$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed No | 60c | 113.33$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 107.58$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 40c | 96.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 57c | 93.27$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.25 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 60c | 89$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b7…cdb7backed Yes | 35c | 88.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x736f…deaabacked No | 60c | 81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 51c | 79.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3749…4094backed No | 60c | 77.77$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 72c | 73.1$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 61c | 66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 68c | 66$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 59c | 66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Yes | 40c | 65.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x38a6…9110backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbad…9e4bbacked No | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e31…9cbfbacked Yes | 41c | 57.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 65c | 52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfda…28c0backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e25…5af9backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +142.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…e221backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc724…3a19backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 57cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…308fbacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7a…0240backed Yes | 41c | 49.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 68c | 46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 60c | 40.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f19…bf1ebacked Yes | 50c | 40.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x382b…f334backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 41c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e32…45b5backed No | 60c | 33.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48f5…7a91backed No | 65c | 32.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 42c | 32.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | -8.1wins | -0.20per pick | 25cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…11afbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 60c | 29.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 65c | 29.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x075c…bfa0backed No | 60c | 27.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4037…fa24backed Yes | 41c | 26.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.20per pick | 46cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5117…6fd1backed No | 60c | 24.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 72c | 23.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea8a…badcbacked No | 60c | 22.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…e294backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f3…1202backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f73…04d0backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9b…8cebbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d01…dd60backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be between $3.25B and $3.75B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Applied Aerospace & Defense not IPO before August 2026?No won
- Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be at least $5.25B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be between $2.75B and $3.25B at market close on IPO day?Yes won
- Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be between $3.75B and $4.25B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be between $4.25B and $4.75B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be less than $2.75B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.