IPO · resolved market
Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be between $3.75B and $4.25B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58a7e20abf394209b50f59434639344411f80d5a6f5ee003f75703ef8135c3a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,438
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,438 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x34b0…d620backed Yes | 18c | 946.1$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.25 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 9c | 451.83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked No | 77c | 437.98$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.01 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 9c | 389.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75fb…3d2fbacked Yes | 12c | 309.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 11c | 160$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 115.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 93.93$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 73c | 89$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be between $3.75B and $4.25B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Applied Aerospace & Defense not IPO before August 2026?No won
- Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be at least $5.25B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be between $2.75B and $3.25B at market close on IPO day?Yes won
- Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be between $3.25B and $3.75B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be between $4.25B and $4.75B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be less than $2.75B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.