IPO · resolved market
Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be between $2.75B and $3.25B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4c49c2cdea9e1ab94459716196df86e2d599815a613202a5c3250912471144b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,764
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,535
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,764 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x54fd…4ac3backed Yes | 55c | 1,020$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.78 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 45c | 832.79$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.04 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 30c | 770.37$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.86 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 31c | 709.97$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.42 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2362…6fd5backed Yes | 33c | 662.84$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34b0…d620backed No | 69c | 564.23$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.77 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 33c | 414.2$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.57 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 67c | 291.14$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.55 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 70c | 250$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed No | 66c | 233.09$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.84 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 31c | 198.58$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.91 | 63 | 27%17 W · 46 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 35c | 191.18$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.42 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 34c | 176.12$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 159.1$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.99 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a97…0a4dbacked Yes | 34c | 132.08$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 120$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b17…ab15backed Yes | 36c | 112.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 77c | 104$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.08 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 77c | 100.48$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3749…4094backed No | 67c | 92.62$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 32c | 91.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.33 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e81…864bbacked Yes | 34c | 91.27$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.69 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 67c | 89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.63 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 46c | 84.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 24c | 83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 81$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb239…a52bbacked Yes | 33c | 66.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 70c | 66$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 40c | 64.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6328…1bf3backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd979…6f8abacked No | 76c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed No | 65c | 58.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06de…cf4cbacked Yes | 64c | 54.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 32c | 51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 74c | 50.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e25…5af9backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +142.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2a…a4a4backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 92 | 15.2%14 W · 78 L | -16.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad0a…0db2backed Yes | 33c | 49.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7238…4faebacked Yes | 36c | 48.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 67c | 40.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e03…beaabacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6e…7f53backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae0…7d6dbacked No | 68c | 39.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 33c | 39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed No | 64c | 37.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 75c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed No | 73c | 33.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 68c | 32.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 34c | 32.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 78c | 28.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +245.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x868d…8208backed No | 68c | 27.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce3…f779backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 32 | 93.8%30 W · 2 L | +6.6wins | +0.21per pick | 73cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x48f5…7a91backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…23a0backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d01…dd60backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef80…7edfbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 67c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be between $2.75B and $3.25B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Applied Aerospace & Defense not IPO before August 2026?No won
- Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be at least $5.25B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be between $3.25B and $3.75B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be between $3.75B and $4.25B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be between $4.25B and $4.75B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be less than $2.75B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.