Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b828c77a733299c0295e2ed1033b6f682afdf93e70243e30bb65ccea8f4db6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,841
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,120
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,841 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa540…0b43backed No | 34c | 821.51$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.61 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b47…4bd3backed Yes | 69c | 503.81$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.32 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 64cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked No | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc8…adf7backed No | 62c | 399.99$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.99 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…f69cbacked Yes | 56c | 317.43$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c2…0c32backed Yes | 46c | 315$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.1 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb92…8bd7backed Yes | 52c | 307.37$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked No | 38c | 257.56$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.77 | 294 | 36.1%106 W · 188 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 38c | 200.92$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.3 | 305 | 34.8%106 W · 199 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x736f…deaabacked Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 40cpaid | +99.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa82a…be8cbacked No | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed No | 46c | 183.64$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.08 | 94 | 22.3%21 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…1b19backed No | 53c | 164.05$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.41 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed Yes | 68c | 160$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d10…3bddbacked No | 58c | 128$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.84 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 48c | 122$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.03 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x395d…7313backed No | 25c | 119.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9a…75c9backed No | 64c | 107.51$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d47ebacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7f…3543backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 43c | 88.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 42c | 86.05$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.79 | 365 | 50.4%184 W · 181 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabcf…17b7backed No | 24c | 83.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ab…83ccbacked Yes | 40c | 50.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8470…aee9backed No | 56c | 48.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 46.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec49…9839backed Yes | 50c | 39.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f25…8f1dbacked Yes | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 45c | 35.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16e8…311cbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on May 26?this page
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on May 26?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on May 26?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on May 26?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on May 26?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on May 26?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on May 26?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.