IPO · resolved market
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.5B and $1.75B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d1ad6b1ade37c9ce2a481cc90d0d6281c30b369e20a026373b9372a11c6d7ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,335
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,682
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,335 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x54fd…4ac3backed No | 63c | 1,986$1,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.44 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 37c | 939.99$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.4 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6e…7f53backed Yes | 35c | 882.85$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 38c | 629.25$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.83 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.5wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbfda…28c0backed Yes | 43c | 384.49$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.41 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 51c | 314.78$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.24 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2362…6fd5backed Yes | 38c | 292.76$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…db62backed Yes | 45c | 287.71$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.68 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x817f…bf28backed No | 76c | 262.57$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d00…e1e0backed Yes | 47c | 230$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a2…169bbacked Yes | 42c | 209.98$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a97…0a4dbacked Yes | 37c | 185.21$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.61 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 167$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.89 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x31ef…5a49backed Yes | 55c | 150$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x736f…deaabacked Yes | 35c | 144.71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.29 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e03…beaabacked Yes | 43c | 140$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Yes | 50c | 136$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3840…14bebacked Yes | 45c | 135.7$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 21c | 130.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 42c | 122.94$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4d…3f16backed Yes | 40c | 115$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86cb…6c6dbacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77d1…6d42backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 63c | 81.21$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x738f…ba83backed Yes | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30b8…fbf3backed Yes | 35c | 75.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc724…3a19backed Yes | 49c | 71.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03bc…530cbacked Yes | 49c | 62.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbad…9e4bbacked Yes | 45c | 59.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 41c | 52.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 92 | 15.2%14 W · 78 L | -16.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked Yes | 48c | 50.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…3761backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…4e77backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…2f44backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc205…5286backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4580…fccdbacked No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x692e…93c2backed Yes | 57c | 45.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e69…01b0backed Yes | 48c | 43.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 50c | 41.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…9828backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x571e…67b2backed Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x385e…3896backed Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…85a3backed Yes | 43c | 39.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 38c | 39.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 63 | 27%17 W · 46 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…95ebbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06db…5244backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1862…8b0fbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03a9…ec2abacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6eb…21b9backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4b…eb8cbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f0…78babacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2102…7c3bbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb1…09c8backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdf…336cbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaef…06d5backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd572…6270backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd689…d4fabacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dca…0cdcbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.5B and $1.75B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Deep Fission not IPO before August 2026?No won
- Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.25B and $1.5B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.75B and $2.0B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $2.0B and $2.5B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on IPO day?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.