IPO · resolved market
Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfd509559b8059a78b323d03200e4286342ffa6c148aa97c1a0e759d78e907c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,140
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x54fd…4ac3backed Yes | 77c | 2,426$1,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.43 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x817f…bf28backed Yes | 61c | 804.89$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…5ae8backed No | 31c | 480$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3749…4094backed No | 33c | 264.59$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 34c | 203.12$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.67 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…db62backed No | 34c | 203.12$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.62 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7f…9941backed No | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 29c | 174.86$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.61 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc1…49d7backed No | 34c | 131$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 28c | 121.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed No | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1400…d220backed No | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58e9…441abacked No | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53f8…f76ebacked No | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5527…5d03backed No | 36c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb986…4b60backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbad…9e4bbacked No | 31c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 32c | 34.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0446…cc69backed Yes | 55c | 24.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 74c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 49c | 20.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | -8.1wins | -0.20per pick | 25cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x01ef…c789backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Deep Fission not IPO before August 2026?No won
- Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.25B and $1.5B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.5B and $1.75B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.75B and $2.0B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $2.0B and $2.5B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.