World Politics · resolved market
Will Maria Natale win the 2026 San Nicola La Strada mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd03afe81b8a08e60d16e41fcd055feed38b738a3c4d9160a36872b27e68cbad8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,663
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,663 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 12c | 817.5$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.1 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 10c | 600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 7c | 561.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed Yes | 75c | 552.18$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.41 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 9c | 494.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 25c | 341.32$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.75 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x736f…deaabacked No | 11c | 318.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 10c | 300$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 21c | 296.14$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.06 | 125 | 56.8%71 W · 54 L | +12.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3dca…3c13backed No | 28c | 281.75$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +11.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 63c | 257$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.9 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22dc…7b11backed No | 10c | 244.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 11c | 161.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 10c | 148.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 22c | 142$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 9c | 141.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 135 | 7.4%10 W · 125 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 10c | 140.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1b…8306backed No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfda…28c0backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Maria Natale win the 2026 San Nicola La Strada mayoral election?this page
- Will Eligia Santucci win the 2026 San Nicola La Strada mayoral election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.