IPO · resolved market
Will Safepoint's market cap be between $900M and $1.1B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd518a63011fc3beec30c5c576d4586fa163d36b579224c11859ccb4725979d2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,552
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,552 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 19c | 1,158$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.23 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54fd…4ac3backed No | 69c | 1,002$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.94 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 60c | 684.98$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.36 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x463f…e458backed Yes | 31c | 400$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 17c | 357.7$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.52 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 31c | 319.51$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.05 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x736f…deaabacked Yes | 11c | 225.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x446b…132abacked Yes | 7c | 205$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 45c | 159.97$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.27 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce60…6705backed Yes | 11c | 155.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x052c…4793backed Yes | 25c | 152$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 37c | 133.37$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 63 | 27%17 W · 46 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 47c | 119.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.5wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f7…2d3cbacked Yes | 47c | 112.9$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfda…28c0backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6e…7f53backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…7889backed Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e03…beaabacked Yes | 17c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 48c | 64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…db62backed Yes | 18c | 59.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed No | 78c | 54.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 47.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbd7c…ed09backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb109…ecf4backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 79c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58bb…a539backed Yes | 48c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x740d…2362backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…4419backed No | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf5…606bbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x257b…d288backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1c…5650backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Safepoint's market cap be between $900M and $1.1B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Safepoint not IPO before August 2026?Yes won
- Will Safepoint's market cap be between $1.1B and $1.3B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Safepoint's market cap be between $1.3B and $1.5B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Safepoint's market cap be between $1.5B and $1.7B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Safepoint's market cap be less than $900M at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.