IPO · resolved market
Will Safepoint not IPO before August 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3ad4523a9007e6e8c67c57d681e1718abd86a601d1b516f402042064f276093
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,359
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,363
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,359 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x49f2…d7b4backed No | 7c | 6,007$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…9445backed No | 7c | 5,070$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed No | 7c | 4,357$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 9c | 4,184$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.88 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked No | 9c | 2,893$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.32 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked No | 16c | 2,385$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.84 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed No | 8c | 2,102$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.9 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54fd…4ac3backed Yes | 76c | 1,885$1,426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.02 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…6609backed No | 9c | 1,735$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked No | 5c | 1,666$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.62 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 10c | 1,575$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.43 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -85%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…1d18backed No | 7c | 1,471$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed No | 9c | 1,100$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed No | 7c | 934.06$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…ee64backed No | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 6c | 500$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8d…6db9backed No | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8a…9022backed No | 17c | 258.06$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…5899backed No | 20c | 250$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 241$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.58 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed No | 8c | 198.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34b0…d620backed Yes | 51c | 153.76$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.9 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c08…5c69backed No | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7db…6688backed No | 8c | 149.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 32c | 140$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 14c | 90.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.5wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 26c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | -8.1wins | -0.20per pick | 25cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 49c | 63.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 92 | 15.2%14 W · 78 L | -16.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -5.9wins | -0.37per pick | 43cpaid | -92%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 44c | 33.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Safepoint not IPO before August 2026?this page
- Will Safepoint's market cap be between $1.1B and $1.3B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Safepoint's market cap be between $1.3B and $1.5B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Safepoint's market cap be between $1.5B and $1.7B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Safepoint's market cap be between $900M and $1.1B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Safepoint's market cap be less than $900M at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.