IPO · resolved market
Will Safepoint's market cap be between $1.1B and $1.3B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x227a962a93006f42237dd9856da11b6e00426abae84e03609358b20121461176
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,742
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b24…f8a1backed Yes | 9c | 1,247$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 23c | 998$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.21 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 31c | 621.42$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.07 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x736f…deaabacked Yes | 20c | 416.89$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.63 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6525…0443backed Yes | 14c | 304.77$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1264…bc59backed Yes | 9c | 260$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 74c | 166.87$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.56 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 159$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.07 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf759…0221backed Yes | 36c | 157$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 19c | 154.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -85%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 68c | 139.59$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 79c | 110.29$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 63 | 27%17 W · 46 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes | 21c | 105$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 10c | 105$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 92 | 15.2%14 W · 78 L | -16.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbfda…28c0backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 38c | 90$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.5wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e69…01b0backed Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…6901backed No | 77c | 64.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 34c | 64.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xead3…b125backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb187…3abfbacked No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfc…9cf9backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ad…28cbbacked No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c9b…8e49backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x319e…1068backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5b…1980backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a2…c296backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 73c | 62.06$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…5130backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e03…beaabacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1362…2c89backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7aa…c812backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b7…cdb7backed No | 79c | 37.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x740d…2362backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…ea65backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2c…d598backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a17…d7f8backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb520…3087backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa244…6da0backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x093a…aa03backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd00…c7eabacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 74c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 68c | 14.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Safepoint's market cap be between $1.1B and $1.3B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Safepoint not IPO before August 2026?Yes won
- Will Safepoint's market cap be between $1.3B and $1.5B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Safepoint's market cap be between $1.5B and $1.7B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Safepoint's market cap be between $900M and $1.1B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Safepoint's market cap be less than $900M at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.