World Politics · resolved market
Will Floriana Natale win the 2026 San Giovanni Rotondo mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd509a9f7e5d65d24e212bd699dfa7a7a594706f70130d75391d6fddf4646e72d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,697
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,496
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,697 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 74c | 1,487$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.29 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dca…3c13backed Yes | 35c | 1,153$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.72 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +11.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 73c | 946$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.21 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 770$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.65 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 27c | 692.82$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.37 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +16.1wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x077e…06d2backed Yes | 24c | 574.01$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…3646backed Yes | 22c | 571.11$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.47 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +3.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +271.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 22c | 487.85$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.71 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…be4dbacked Yes | 16c | 461.71$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.84 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 405$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.79 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 26c | 333$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.42 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a7…4ddfbacked Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +160%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes | 32c | 290.73$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.9 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 264$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.9 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 61c | 250$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.93 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Yes | 37c | 250$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked Yes | 14c | 231.64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.07 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 192$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.32 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfae3…5228backed Yes | 60c | 180.67$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.53 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +259.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22dc…7b11backed Yes | 33c | 153.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.38 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked Yes | 26c | 136$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.99 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 51c | 127$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.68 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 125.46$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.93 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 72c | 120$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x736f…deaabacked Yes | 26c | 118.47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.42 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 38c | 114$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.34 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +5.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 36c | 110$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 103$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.22 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebb…586bbacked Yes | 25c | 100.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 30c | 96.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.57 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 71c | 94$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.74 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb51…1a2cbacked Yes | 17c | 92.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.01 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.38per pick | 48cpaid | +134%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30b8…fbf3backed No | 72c | 71.15$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.01 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 53c | 70$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 32c | 56.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7921…cab1backed Yes | 36c | 51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…7b18backed Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 77c | 39.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 74c | 39.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 37.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 39c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 43c | 34.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 74c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 60c | 26.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 74c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf356…7d7ebacked Yes | 44c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 66c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 142 | 5.6%8 W · 134 L | -27.2wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…3377backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c3…752abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cba…38ffbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2f…1498backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7510…6cb0backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Floriana Natale win the 2026 San Giovanni Rotondo mayoral election?this page
- Will Rossella Fini win the 2026 San Giovanni Rotondo mayoral election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.