Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x407c146f06e55f24903d5270a041ad6d4e26b5e64e6208ffb80c715e18749f3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,916
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a06…174bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…bf4abacked Yes | 1c | 2,031$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 21c | 1,035$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.25 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 22c | 1,020$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.96 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…bc39backed Yes | 15c | 950.09$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.35 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes | 17c | 884.61$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…c773backed No | 77c | 807.29$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.75 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 14c | 667$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.38 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 58c | 620.89$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.41 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd881…40cdbacked No | 78c | 601.31$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.79 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 17c | 565.67$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.85 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 72c | 459.6$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.1 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 437.64$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.33 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 16c | 434.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed No | 38c | 425.98$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.05 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +10.6wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd351…b2d9backed Yes | 56c | 330.27$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.47 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 74c | 325.3$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.92 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 318$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 28c | 310.24$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.58 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 263.67$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.69 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 78c | 254.63$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 9c | 248.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9980…a036backed No | 66c | 198.18$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.18 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 194.5$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…e1b7backed Yes | 21c | 192.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 30c | 186$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.89 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2383…fef0backed No | 79c | 180$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 19c | 164.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52fe…c258backed Yes | 61c | 163.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.57 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed No | 21c | 162.65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.71 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 73c | 154.82$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 145.22$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 78c | 139.59$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 27c | 138.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x550e…94dbbacked Yes | 18c | 138.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 24c | 134.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…6ed2backed Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…fc75backed Yes | 16c | 129.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 37c | 128.15$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 45c | 124.24$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.35 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 58c | 123.67$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.33 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 46c | 121.21$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed Yes | 24c | 120.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 116.81$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.79 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 19c | 115$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 109.19$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 17c | 107.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 107$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 104$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 77c | 102.3$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed No | 80c | 102.04$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dd…81b2backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 70c | 99.76$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.84 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab2…53a5backed Yes | 21c | 95.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 33c | 91.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.33 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 18c | 88.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ac…99ddbacked Yes | 34c | 87.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 17c | 86.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 25c | 86.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 19c | 85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f5…3464backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 39c | 80.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 46c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.3 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed No | 38c | 78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.48 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes | 20c | 76.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 38c | 73.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 51c | 71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 20c | 70.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.61 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 70$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc651…895bbacked Yes | 45c | 67.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 43c | 64.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.89 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 66c | 64.26$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 64$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c29…b975backed Yes | 31c | 63.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +91%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe14…d255backed Yes | 36c | 62.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 44c | 61.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 20c | 61.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 21c | 58.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…52abbacked No | 59c | 55.47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 28c | 55.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 30c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 79c | 50.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…f4fcbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c6…cd99backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5201…34c3backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 26c | 47.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 75c | 46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 28c | 45.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 43.55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 80c | 42.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 80c | 42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.