TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$44,996
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,916

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,996 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0a06…174bbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1080%0 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb9…bf4abacked Yes1c2,031$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.25466.7%36 W · 18 L+5.1wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes21c1,035$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.2539427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes22c1,020$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.961,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7331…bc39backed Yes15c950.09$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.359425.5%24 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes17c884.61$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15021829.4%64 W · 154 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cad…c773backed No77c807.29$619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.756750.7%34 W · 33 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-19.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x441a…e9c7backed Yes14c667$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.3839543.5%172 W · 223 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No58c620.89$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.414,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd881…40cdbacked No78c601.31$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.797251.4%37 W · 35 L-6.6wins-0.09per pick60cpaid-12.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes17c565.67$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.853,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes72c459.6$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.147136.5%172 W · 299 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes17c437.64$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.3310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7726…4aeebacked Yes16c434.98$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.611227.7%31 W · 81 L+12.3wins+0.11per pick17cpaid+175.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x34c1…1bb0backed No38c425.98$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.057258.3%42 W · 30 L+10.6wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+57.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd351…b2d9backed Yes56c330.27$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.473240.6%13 W · 19 L-5.0wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-39.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No74c325.3$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.922,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No76c318$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.54,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3500…07f0backed Yes28c310.24$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.5815527.7%43 W · 112 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-34.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes19c263.67$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.696,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No78c254.63$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.81,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes9c248.87$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.512,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes16c200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.81,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9980…a036backed No66c198.18$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.183560%21 W · 14 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No42c194.5$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.7912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf56c…e1b7backed Yes21c192.3$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.93834.2%13 W · 25 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x567a…b24cbacked Yes30c186$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8912927.1%35 W · 94 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2383…fef0backed No79c180$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373745.9%17 W · 20 L-4.0wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes19c164.08$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.044,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x52fe…c258backed Yes61c163.54$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.574141.5%17 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed No21c162.65$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.7134533%114 W · 231 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No73c154.82$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.1879947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No77c145.22$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.733,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No78c139.59$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.712,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes27c138.54$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4111927.7%33 W · 86 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x550e…94dbbacked Yes18c138.26$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.713740.5%15 W · 22 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+20.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xda07…62a0backed Yes24c134.61$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7120133.3%67 W · 134 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb59a…6ed2backed Yes8c130$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.44418.2%8 W · 36 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4453…fc75backed Yes16c129.18$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.676527.7%18 W · 47 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick20cpaid+68.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5ecf…af11backed Yes37c128.15$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.938138.6%147 W · 234 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No45c124.24$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.356,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No58c123.67$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.331,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes46c121.21$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed Yes24c120.84$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5119737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No67c116.81$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.794,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes19c115$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2227246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No79c109.19$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.681,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes17c107.77$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.812,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes15c107$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.059,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No76c104$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.235,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No77c102.3$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.122,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe7…1ea9backed No80c102.04$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5115570.3%109 W · 46 L+23.6wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+16.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1015717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ca2…1798backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.251533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-46.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3dd…81b2backed Yes49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494431.8%14 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09c2…8210backed Yes70c99.76$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.8454154%292 W · 249 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ab2…53a5backed Yes21c95.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No33c91.2$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.332,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb3eb…b529backed Yes18c88.89$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1661629.4%181 W · 435 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1ac…99ddbacked Yes34c87.12$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301533.3%5 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes17c86.44$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4161821.2%131 W · 487 L-34.2wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No25c86.22$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.54,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed Yes19c85$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1554853.1%291 W · 257 L-28.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3f5…3464backed Yes18c83.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151050%5 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes39c80.73$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4627047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed No46c80$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.349543.6%216 W · 279 L+31.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9acf…0cc2backed No38c78$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.4822945.4%104 W · 125 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes20c76.7$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155736.8%21 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes38c73.07$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.582,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes51c71$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0825839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed No20c70.78$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.611,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No24c70$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.37,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xc651…895bbacked Yes45c67.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.591833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid+22.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No43c64.5$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.8957044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No66c64.26$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0377151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No72c64$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.924,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c29…b975backed Yes31c63.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.941442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+91%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe14…d255backed Yes36c62.22$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.271450%7 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes44c61.5$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1557747%271 W · 306 L+40.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe828…ae41backed Yes20c61.31$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.519027.8%25 W · 65 L-10.0wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-34.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes21c60$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5230333%100 W · 203 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+24.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed No78c60$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.281848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No75c60$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked Yes21c58.45$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5172952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x470b…52abbacked No59c55.47$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.683764.9%24 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No28c55.19$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.773,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd23…fababacked Yes30c52$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3615722.9%36 W · 121 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid+5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No79c50.01$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4154867.3%369 W · 179 L+26.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x33e8…dc93backed Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1123941.4%99 W · 140 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6edc…f4fcbacked Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113432.4%11 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c6…cd99backed Yes50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x215b…8ec5backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015334.6%53 W · 100 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5201…34c3backed Yes49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.56349.2%31 W · 32 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid+4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes26c47.2$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.192,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No75c46$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.528456%159 W · 125 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x518c…d366backed Yes28c45.82$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.838637.2%32 W · 54 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No79c43.55$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.154,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No80c42.57$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.513,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No79c42$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.784,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No80c42$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.477555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.