Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfafad9d85494eba670248141fab577eefcdecc219f189cce535a492ecd111d51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,397
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,659
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,397 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbee8…15bebacked Yes | 13c | 967.16$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.02 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 2c | 676.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 2c | 675$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 30c | 532.52$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 4c | 490.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 450.31$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.17 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 5c | 399.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 39c | 397.37$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.28 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 385$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.35 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 4c | 322.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 43c | 316.6$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.68 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 73c | 279.03$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.79 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 31c | 241.54$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.19 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 223$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.02 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 13c | 213.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 191.53$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3848backed Yes | 28c | 189.1$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.46 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 8c | 182.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 31c | 176$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.54 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed No | 57c | 175.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.43 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 65c | 160.8$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.97 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 157.68$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.36 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…c773backed Yes | 25c | 139.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 33c | 133.01$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.11 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 130$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 126.95$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 29c | 111.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 104$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 74c | 102.3$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 37c | 98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 97.57$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb716…1873backed Yes | 12c | 94.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes | 37c | 93.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 66c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 90$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 34c | 82.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 68c | 80.22$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 36c | 79.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 33c | 72.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 64c | 68.56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 25c | 67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 34c | 67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 66$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 28c | 61.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76d3…f6d9backed Yes | 37c | 53.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…0d6bbacked No | 73c | 53.04$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 156 | 69.2%108 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed No | 73c | 52.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 63c | 50.62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 61c | 49.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 75c | 46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 44.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 72c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec8…b2c9backed Yes | 28c | 38.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6851…ec54backed Yes | 32c | 35.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x688c…74d0backed Yes | 35c | 31.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07e9…15dcbacked No | 70c | 31.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 76c | 30.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…88a2backed No | 72c | 22.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 58 | 84.5%49 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 76cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 74c | 19.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.