TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,666
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,721

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,666 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 172 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe040…824fbacked No50c820.07$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.94,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes41c791.99$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.5839427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes43c766.44$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.6760236.5%220 W · 382 L-2.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x441a…e9c7backed No56c647.95$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.2939543.5%172 W · 223 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes45c471$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26164446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes59c344.03$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.6515570.3%109 W · 46 L+23.6wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+16.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No56c318.87$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.844,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes34c294.11$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.1121829.4%64 W · 154 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No58c276.63$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.574,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No65c268.54$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.512,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No57c262.83$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.331,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9281…60febacked Yes57c261.85$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.853458.8%20 W · 14 L+5.2wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+36.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No59c246.58$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.5957044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes16c242.54$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.013,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No56c240.38$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.112,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No57c230$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.93,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes25c200$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15148331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6fb…c038backed Yes41c200$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11843932.8%144 W · 295 L+20.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x71d3…e130backed No62c198.67$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.123743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cad…c773backed No64c195.16$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.416750.7%34 W · 33 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-19.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No50c181.8$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.8112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes40c180.51$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.731,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x567a…b24cbacked Yes31c165.35$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.8312927.1%35 W · 94 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes61c165.25$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.256,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No61c162$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.634,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No60c160.23$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.784,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No57c158$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.062,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7331…bc39backed Yes45c154.19$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.089425.5%24 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc5ee…807abacked No65c153.51$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.78955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick73cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x25e5…96bdbacked No67c149.34$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006653%35 W · 31 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes36c140.03$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.0761821.2%131 W · 487 L-34.2wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes36c140$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.8881558.5%477 W · 338 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8593…82f5backed Yes38c130.94$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.318337.3%31 W · 52 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+37.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No59c130$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.743,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No65c125.61$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.692,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ecf…af11backed No54c125$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.538138.6%147 W · 234 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes32c121.41$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.5210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes19c120.35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.9977151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb20f…5737backed Yes42c120.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.335525.5%14 W · 41 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-20.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes45c118.93$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.5965934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No80c117.6$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.8147136.5%172 W · 299 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No56c116.81$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.644,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No64c115.97$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.732,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbee8…15bebacked Yes61c115.56$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.068421.4%18 W · 66 L+0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-45.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3e4…16f9backed No60c115$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.745056%28 W · 22 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+25.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x885a…4e58backed Yes79c114.11$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.851376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.22per pick55cpaid+46%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes40c113.82$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.821,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No55c110.58$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3579947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3f5…3464backed Yes45c110.47$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.471050%5 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes73c110.03$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.862,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6961…511bbacked No58c110$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.194461.4%27 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No56c106.96$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.494,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebe3…883dbacked Yes34c106.59$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.66250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+48.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No55c106.58$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.823,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No56c104$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.765,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No58c102.13$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.741,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No34c101.7$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.12,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x33e8…dc93backed Yes32c100$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6823941.4%99 W · 140 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes32c100$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6837150.4%187 W · 184 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed No55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555450%27 W · 27 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes38c99.99$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.174338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0d7…2305backed No55c99.98$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.99540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-29.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes33c96$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.321,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd47f…6532backed Yes58c93.04$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.76450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a8e…05a4backed No65c90.08$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3243050.2%216 W · 214 L+21.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No49c88.93$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.531,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes41c88.85$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.211,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes16c85.22$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.711,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7342…d5b4backed No56c85$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.615966.7%106 W · 53 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes33c84.86$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.8647239.8%188 W · 284 L+31.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+35.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked Yes42c80.19$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.5150860.4%307 W · 201 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb716…1873backed Yes43c79.11$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.11333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes40c79$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.122945.4%104 W · 125 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No49c75.92$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No56c75.3$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.142,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c48…1c17backed Yes34c74$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.1216552.7%87 W · 78 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes41c72.53$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.691,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe14…d255backed Yes45c71.83$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.411450%7 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No58c71.56$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.285,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked No60c71$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.252,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No56c70$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.931649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes41c68$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.1747538.1%181 W · 294 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd456…63a4backed Yes45c66.67$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.674247.6%20 W · 22 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+14%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes52c64.71$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.312,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes29c64.32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.572,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No56c64.26$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9968867.2%462 W · 226 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes43c62.79$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.7911146.8%52 W · 59 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x379a…4b1abacked Yes42c62.65$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.3442948%206 W · 223 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes39c60.97$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.98,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed Yes39c60.56$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9490555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc448…085ebacked Yes37c60.15$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.7421919.6%43 W · 176 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes31c60.01$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.213,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7aed…df39backed No61c59$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7635063.1%221 W · 129 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes38c57$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.349,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes34c55$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.33,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No40c54.66$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.991,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes46c53$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.52,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed Yes35c52.55$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0489951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1bbd…3bedbacked No77c51.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.637541.6%156 W · 219 L-52.4wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-28%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xb335…aac1backed Yes38c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.029538.9%37 W · 58 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.