Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb2f4e2490d7409b0cd69a1ef27c98798b5a3deee901c36a2aa2e2183fd5288e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,183
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,183 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 51c | 1,296$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.16 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf828…5ca4backed No | 59c | 1,212$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.15 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 757.93$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.1 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 17c | 733.57$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.38 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 35c | 585.61$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.96 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes | 8c | 515.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.02 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 67c | 408.58$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.63 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 12c | 376.91$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 315.53$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.1 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9334…d08abacked Yes | 69c | 306.49$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 17c | 291.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.74 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 28c | 275.28$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.47 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked No | 65c | 252.5$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.44 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 41c | 250.5$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.57 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 6c | 237.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.91 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 71c | 206.8$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.67 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 14c | 206.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 26c | 190.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.7 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 178.2$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.67 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 170.72$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.78 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 39c | 168.19$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.23 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 31c | 163.7$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.71 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 163.59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.62 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 12c | 141.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.33 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 73c | 138.4$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.68 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34f5…edd9backed Yes | 11c | 126.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.48 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b1…ab05backed Yes | 27c | 111.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.21 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +75%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 102.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 28c | 96.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.09 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc739…e55dbacked Yes | 15c | 94.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +518.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 56c | 87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 46c | 86.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 23c | 85.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 45c | 83.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 29c | 83.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.34 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 40c | 81.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 75c | 79.07$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.3 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x207e…319abacked Yes | 33c | 77.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.95 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 74c | 77.51$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.43 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 72.6$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.38 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 24c | 70.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.22 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 69.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.09 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 69.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6284…ac6cbacked No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 71c | 61.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 37c | 60.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 57.83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 29c | 57.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 51.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 64c | 49.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 71c | 48.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 48.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 29c | 47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 72c | 45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 49c | 44.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…2002backed Yes | 36c | 38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe175…a473backed No | 72c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…770bbacked Yes | 70c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 73c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 27.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 78c | 26.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 65c | 25.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 21.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa1…2f62backed No | 76c | 18.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 68 | 70.6%48 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked No | 73c | 15.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…773dbacked No | 76c | 14.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.