Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f29d43ef0922751b203b3249afd580b15b67e50a53a39e0a4faeeb2a7b97ecc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,672
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,511
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,672 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 0c | 6,755$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…04e5backed Yes | 3c | 530$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 21c | 528.84$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.42 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 17c | 519.77$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.36 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 31c | 211.95$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.48 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 15c | 156$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 132.4$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…6ed2backed Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 23c | 123.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 77c | 108.1$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 41c | 96.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 63c | 92.03$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.39 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 73c | 87.09$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 23c | 81.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 17c | 75.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…91dabacked Yes | 20c | 71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 69.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52fe…c258backed Yes | 63c | 64.89$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 74c | 64.86$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 63.6$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 75c | 61.53$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf828…5ca4backed Yes | 19c | 60.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 80c | 55.37$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56ab…784ebacked Yes | 60c | 53.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.32per pick | 51cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fd…9638backed Yes | 25c | 52.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 31c | 51.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 51.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 50.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 80c | 42.48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 25c | 40.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 44c | 36.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 53c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 74c | 30.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 80c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 61c | 25.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 74c | 23.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x599f…3317backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 125 | 78.4%98 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 72c | 19.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce9…a994backed No | 55c | 19.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on August 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.