TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,469
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,832

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,469 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdadb…1870backed Yes20c1,006$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.3358922.8%134 W · 455 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes43c882.79$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.9760236.5%220 W · 382 L-2.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes65c621.89$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.283,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No57c582.27$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.264,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No58c412.8$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.81,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes4c290.72$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.447,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes12c268.36$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.281,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes45c254.91$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.971,53124.2%371 W · 1,160 L+15.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes5c232.64$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.631,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No68c216$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.243,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No67c206.8$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.282,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes39c205.09$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No66c178.2$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.925,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9196…d934backed Yes18c177.62$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1764460.6%390 W · 254 L+92.2wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+36.4%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xcaf5…41abbacked No10c171.82$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.6447239.8%188 W · 284 L+31.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+35.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No57c170$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.35,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed No44c153.14$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.5753525.2%135 W · 400 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes59c132.54$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.699436.2%34 W · 60 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+94.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes20c130$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2611626.7%31 W · 85 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No66c121.37$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.032,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda07…62a0backed Yes33c121.13$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7320133.3%67 W · 134 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes34c120.2$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.874,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb99b…b581backed Yes32c120$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.410439.4%41 W · 63 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf12d…eeafbacked No17c116.34$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.3316733.5%56 W · 111 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93cc…454ebacked No18c111.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.3825541.2%105 W · 150 L+22.4wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No66c107.6$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.243,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8629…ce84backed No57c106.13$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.168261%50 W · 32 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No63c105$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.382,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f40…887cbacked No13c100$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$875614.3%8 W · 48 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes50c99.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No63c98.77$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.834,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No58c95.58$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.752,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No78c90.35$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.182,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No57c90$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.46,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No57c87$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4189557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes33c83.19$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.854,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6cda…d7c6backed No61c82.05$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.054650%23 W · 23 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No65c72.58$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.052,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No58c70$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.661,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No65c69.99$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.153,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes63c69.56$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.976,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No36c68.87$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.42,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a2a…12a1backed No39c68.62$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.62666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No52c66.27$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.832,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No55c61.52$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.874,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x518c…d366backed Yes37c59.02$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.738637.2%32 W · 54 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes43c58.13$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd30…685bbacked No57c57.36$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.85771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+26.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No58c55$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.93,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes37c55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.33,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No60c54.7$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.054,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a83…497dbacked Yes37c50.17$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6634935.2%123 W · 226 L+1.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed Yes37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.560550.7%307 W · 298 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No57c49.16$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.955,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No56c48$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.881,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No33c46.09$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.712,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No57c45$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.3528456%159 W · 125 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No57c45$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.43,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No59c42.87$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.684,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes36c41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9368338.8%265 W · 418 L+36.1wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5284…27f5backed Yes39c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.618240.1%73 W · 109 L-16.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-21.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4f12…e708backed Yes41c36.84$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe2d…da35backed No62c35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3527169%187 W · 84 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf456…91dabacked Yes43c34.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid+24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0036…84bcbacked Yes38c34.05$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8740%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4bf2…2002backed Yes44c34$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.961323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-41.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4560…d361backed Yes41c33.73$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.961822.2%4 W · 14 L-3.4wins-0.19per pick41cpaid-51.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x04dc…d572backed Yes59c31.72$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6837465.2%244 W · 130 L+23.4wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb259…9207backed Yes43c31.21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4211027.3%30 W · 80 L-22.3wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-40.6%equal weight32-0.17 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No63c31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4799571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No58c28$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.762,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No62c28$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.574,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes55c27.87$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.379262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0x2248…53d0backed Yes36c27.78$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103259.4%19 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e5f…08babacked Yes43c26.77$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5180%0 W · 8 L-3.3wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No53c24.96$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.732,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No59c22.12$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.123,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.61,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc3b…10c9backed Yes65c19.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes57c17.82$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.192,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd834…1d87backed Yes76c16.41$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.57133.8%24 W · 47 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef61…2ee6backed No62c16.13$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1333550.4%169 W · 166 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd11b…a77fbacked No64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes77c15.32$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8466758%387 W · 280 L+48.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc42d…9bbbbacked Yes74c15.11$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+111.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No74c13.89$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.6128163.7%179 W · 102 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.