Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x066d9d50b82d73477c754bd3805c7813ecb1f4b31a2194eaa114c370edb2c2a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,469
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,469 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 20c | 1,006$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.33 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 43c | 882.79$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.97 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 65c | 621.89$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 57c | 582.27$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.26 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 58c | 412.8$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.8 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 4c | 290.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 12c | 268.36$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 45c | 254.91$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.97 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 5c | 232.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 68c | 216$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.24 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 67c | 206.8$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.28 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 39c | 205.09$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 178.2$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.92 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 18c | 177.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 10c | 171.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.64 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 170$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 44c | 153.14$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.57 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes | 59c | 132.54$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.69 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 20c | 130$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 66c | 121.37$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.03 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 33c | 121.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 34c | 120.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 32c | 120$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked No | 17c | 116.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.33 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 18c | 111.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.38 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 107.6$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 57c | 106.13$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.16 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 63c | 105$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f40…887cbacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 50c | 99.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 98.77$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 58c | 95.58$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 78c | 90.35$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 57c | 90$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 57c | 87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 33c | 83.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cda…d7c6backed No | 61c | 82.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 65c | 72.58$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 58c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 69.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 63c | 69.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.97 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 36c | 68.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2a…12a1backed No | 39c | 68.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.62 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 52c | 66.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.83 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 61.52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 37c | 59.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 43c | 58.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…685bbacked No | 57c | 57.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 58c | 55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 60c | 54.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 37c | 50.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 49.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 56c | 48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 33c | 46.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 57c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 59c | 42.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 36c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f12…e708backed Yes | 41c | 36.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 62c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…91dabacked Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…84bcbacked Yes | 38c | 34.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…2002backed Yes | 44c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…d361backed Yes | 41c | 33.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 59c | 31.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed Yes | 43c | 31.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 58c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 55c | 27.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x2248…53d0backed Yes | 36c | 27.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…08babacked Yes | 43c | 26.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 53c | 24.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 59c | 22.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3b…10c9backed Yes | 65c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 57c | 17.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…1d87backed Yes | 76c | 16.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11b…a77fbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 77c | 15.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc42d…9bbbbacked Yes | 74c | 15.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +111.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 74c | 13.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on August 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.