Ukraine · resolved market
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1daa856d50fe01a0bf8f8bb168705fc6ae929faa0f00252fb7ad3461c8db7a3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,915
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed No | 20c | 5,337$1,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,077.57 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 5c | 3,349$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f48…e69bbacked No | 22c | 1,933$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 7c | 1,878$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.84 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 75c | 1,511$1,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.34 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 1c | 1,282$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x797a…7924backed No | 9c | 1,115$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea44…7e91backed No | 5c | 1,100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…1a7bbacked No | 4c | 1,065$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 4c | 1,062$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 5c | 1,009$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +105.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd27…2807backed Yes | 77c | 1,000$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 32cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcac2…c29bbacked Yes | 79c | 776.24$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 7c | 747.15$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 7c | 718.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb19c…2467backed No | 4c | 698.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57e1…9a45backed No | 13c | 493.58$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…26d1backed No | 13c | 400.11$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2153…1ce5backed No | 4c | 347.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6744…b19fbacked No | 5c | 302.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf13f…31cbbacked No | 4c | 263.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 7c | 251.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 11c | 240.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -60%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 17c | 234.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 75c | 218.43$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.81 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 11c | 211.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…0fbbbacked No | 14c | 199.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed No | 16c | 193.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 11c | 187$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 58 | 20.7%12 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 10c | 171.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 10c | 171.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4618…f25ebacked Yes | 76c | 171.35$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7149…ea99backed No | 6c | 167$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 10c | 162.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6c…fbdcbacked Yes | 79c | 161.46$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…67b5backed No | 12c | 160.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed8b…e92cbacked No | 7c | 157.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 7c | 154.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 19c | 144.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c2…7c31backed Yes | 77c | 136.17$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 9c | 131.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 10c | 129$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…fe52backed Yes | 76c | 125$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 10c | 105$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bae…2955backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 62cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6f…1e55backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 17c | 99.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 15c | 98.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 11c | 92.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x377d…ddddbacked No | 17c | 87.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 13c | 85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 14c | 73.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b30…100fbacked No | 16c | 69.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 18c | 63.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda51…316ebacked No | 32c | 61.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed No | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae70…abfbbacked No | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b6…9adbbacked Yes | 75c | 58.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0950…62f4backed Yes | 68c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…abb8backed Yes | 79c | 32.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 79c | 30.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…6c7bbacked Yes | 75c | 23.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e31…a7b7backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc8…5709backed Yes | 79c | 16.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd88…b752backed Yes | 78c | 15.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb88…7b8abacked Yes | 80c | 14.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting?this page
- Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the June Meeting?No won
- Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Meeting?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.