Ukraine · resolved market
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2da9a8cdf0abbe6b6b89cef2fc14ae7686419c33606d696bd15d8ccf302a818
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,357
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,640
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,357 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1bd5…f114backed Yes | 0c | 10,051$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354a…61d8backed Yes | 9c | 4,111$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed Yes | 21c | 2,841$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.27 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05bb…9acabacked Yes | 6c | 2,537$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +101%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae31…7fa1backed Yes | 4c | 1,840$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +133.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 19c | 1,509$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb602…24b2backed Yes | 8c | 1,224$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdea…1c07backed Yes | 9c | 1,072$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88a1…618dbacked Yes | 3c | 922.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Yes | 10c | 921.87$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 7c | 918.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.76 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 6c | 799.94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6d…a2a1backed Yes | 15c | 683.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…0fbbbacked Yes | 13c | 500$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa681…8b89backed Yes | 12c | 499.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +371.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1874…40d3backed Yes | 5c | 420.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed Yes | 16c | 327.92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.69 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 12c | 318.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 298.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 11c | 267.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked Yes | 4c | 262.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4618…f25ebacked Yes | 10c | 259.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb143…3c17backed Yes | 6c | 252.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 11c | 237$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 234.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 16c | 218.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…25b4backed Yes | 15c | 195.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a8…6137backed Yes | 16c | 153.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec21…df18backed Yes | 22c | 134.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…1126backed Yes | 15c | 131.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4873…b9c2backed Yes | 14c | 128.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 27cpaid | +332.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…fe52backed Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff3…e007backed Yes | 10c | 122.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5073…16a7backed Yes | 22c | 118.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9783…ac60backed Yes | 20c | 118.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbe…8215backed Yes | 13c | 117.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 9c | 116.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae70…abfbbacked Yes | 18c | 112.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x010d…c969backed Yes | 14c | 108.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48f9…e61dbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +134.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65dc…adedbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29ac…d51ebacked Yes | 13c | 95.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 92.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes | 15c | 90.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567e…d582backed Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda51…316ebacked Yes | 29c | 69.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae6…e1b6backed Yes | 18c | 62.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa748…fddfbacked Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 20c | 51.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…6c7bbacked No | 73c | 24.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked No | 77c | 17.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 72c | 17.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 26 | 84.6%22 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 72cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Meeting?this page
- Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting?Yes won
- Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the June Meeting?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.