Movies · resolved market
Will "Worst Neighbor Ever" be the top US Netflix show this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b5000fda474258326307e48efd081181836c4f4ebb891d1550321b3cf64f77e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,683
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,468
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,683 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 24c | 1,719$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.73 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 16c | 1,714$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.07 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66cb…3dd2backed Yes | 67c | 1,569$1,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.85 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 18c | 1,252$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.64 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 12c | 1,200$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.86 | 266 | 6.4%17 W · 249 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 26c | 1,013$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.1 | 82 | 25.6%21 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 26c | 673.3$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.87 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 21c | 664.71$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.89 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 16c | 636.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.39 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 23c | 531.25$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.97 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 30c | 502.6$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.21 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 16c | 489.92$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.34 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 18c | 450$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 23c | 441.71$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.21 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 16c | 421.48$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.31 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 43c | 421.16$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.99 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 76c | 405.08$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 26c | 383.66$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 16c | 369.5$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 19c | 345.19$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.12 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4f…747cbacked Yes | 72c | 312.21$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.1 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +10.1wins | +0.42per pick | 37cpaid | +355.5%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 18c | 311.94$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.78 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 22c | 269.75$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 17c | 229.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 29c | 224.12$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.46 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 10c | 220.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e9…5250backed Yes | 69c | 211.05$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.24 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 74c | 209.97$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 26c | 204.35$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.21 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 22c | 203.07$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.62 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 14c | 185.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 22c | 168.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 25c | 165.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…51eebacked Yes | 70c | 161.55$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 22c | 158.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 119 | 24.4%29 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No | 10c | 150.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 329 | 24%79 W · 250 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e8…46c5backed Yes | 70c | 128$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 19c | 123.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 20c | 115.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 31c | 115.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…fdecbacked No | 43c | 111$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.18 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 30c | 107.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 22c | 104$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 26c | 100.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1946…6367backed No | 31c | 90.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 19c | 90$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 21c | 88.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 22c | 80.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 72c | 77.84$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 24c | 65.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 25c | 60.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 34c | 54.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…19a4backed Yes | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 30c | 50.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 130 | 34.6%45 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…15e1backed Yes | 45c | 49.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | +14.1wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…8354backed Yes | 65c | 46.96$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789a…1ddabacked No | 49c | 46.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 44cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed Yes | 76c | 46.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 26c | 38.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0174…2150backed No | 55c | 36.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 50c | 20.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…e45ebacked Yes | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Worst Neighbor Ever" be the top US Netflix show this week?this page
- Will "Avatar: The Last Airbender: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "I Will Find You" be the top US Netflix show this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.