Movies · resolved market
Will "I Will Find You" be the top US Netflix show this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42bc5360285f342aa360887c32a3264e4feb4e9b74bd31a59a4a54b591ac7594
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,078
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,349
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,078 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 21c | 14,462$3,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,052.73 | 95 | 6.3%6 W · 89 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -79%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Yes | 22c | 5,844$1,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,268.94 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66cb…3dd2backed No | 71c | 5,027$3,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,446.07 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 24c | 4,486$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.09 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 1,746$1,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.06 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x819f…f3e7backed Yes | 22c | 1,617$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 79c | 1,412$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.54 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 6c | 1,323$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.17 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,211$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 130 | 34.6%45 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 796.37$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.34 | 82 | 25.6%21 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 10c | 774.6$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.29 | 268 | 6.3%17 W · 251 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed No | 70c | 712.71$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.22 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 697.12$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.77 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 673.3$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.31 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 78c | 664.7$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.26 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 40c | 555$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 19c | 498.55$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.48 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 71c | 477.17$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.02 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 80c | 462.1$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.1 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 76c | 444.76$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.16 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 15c | 404.19$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.94 | 119 | 24.4%29 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 25c | 397$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.93 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 80c | 366.54$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 77c | 270.82$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.28 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 75c | 264.29$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.35 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 73c | 224.12$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 79c | 193.67$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.01 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 17c | 181.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes | 14c | 180.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 69c | 167.22$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 65c | 164.14$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.92 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed Yes | 35c | 163.66$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.7 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 76c | 152.24$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 76c | 151.71$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.84 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 71c | 147.13$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 20c | 136.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 40cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 130.5$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.81 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 73c | 129.03$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 75c | 124.68$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff77…b94bbacked Yes | 13c | 120$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 78c | 104$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1946…6367backed No | 70c | 94.82$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 77c | 91.49$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 26c | 85.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 194 | 40.2%78 W · 116 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 76c | 85.5$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…19a4backed Yes | 59c | 85.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4f…747cbacked No | 71c | 84.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +10.1wins | +0.42per pick | 37cpaid | +355.5%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…99febacked No | 70c | 84.74$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d05…acdebacked Yes | 17c | 81.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 76c | 78.35$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 78c | 71.62$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 75c | 69.5$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed No | 75c | 66.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 60c | 60.37$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 30c | 58.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…fdecbacked Yes | 41c | 55.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…6262backed Yes | 19c | 53.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 35c | 50.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1411…2410backed No | 67c | 49.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 74c | 46.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 111 | 84.7%94 W · 17 L | +11.3wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…b936backed Yes | 25c | 42.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…e45ebacked Yes | 33c | 42.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 28c | 41.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 75c | 38.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…8607backed No | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 76cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789a…1ddabacked Yes | 80c | 28.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 44cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 73c | 27.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 40c | 26.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…fe40backed No | 76c | 23.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 72c | 23.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a79…43b5backed No | 66c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c30…d8abbacked No | 70c | 19.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd012…1d4fbacked No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3e…df5dbacked No | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "I Will Find You" be the top US Netflix show this week?this page
- Will "Avatar: The Last Airbender: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "Worst Neighbor Ever" be the top US Netflix show this week?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.