Middle East · resolved market
Will USD be between 1.8M and 1.9M Iranian rials on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0e9e4d63c4b9bf067ed68afb96351d578f3fb86d0bc34f19ca4d64d99e4fde0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,773
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,786
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,773 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a58…b808backed Yes | 17c | 2,267$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.35 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4d…33edbacked Yes | 33c | 1,594$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.43 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad65…8c6bbacked Yes | 23c | 809.8$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.92 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76db…6987backed Yes | 12c | 412.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 331.99$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 274.35$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.28 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 75c | 255$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.96 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 245.37$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.37 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2086…8ef7backed Yes | 34c | 237.19$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.77 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 228.86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.91 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd726…b5c9backed Yes | 30c | 200.01$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.66 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +8.9wins | +0.29per pick | 33cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 16c | 176.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ce…0b77backed Yes | 22c | 130.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 88$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 84.23$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 75c | 77.29$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 19c | 60.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…ea5cbacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 67cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 80c | 18.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 71c | 15.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 80c | 12.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will USD be between 1.8M and 1.9M Iranian rials on July 31?this page
- Will USD be at least 1.9M Iranian rials on July 31?Yes won
- Will USD be between 1.5M and 1.6M Iranian rials on July 31?No won
- Will USD be between 1.6M and 1.7M Iranian rials on July 31?No won
- Will USD be between 1.7M and 1.8M Iranian rials on July 31?No won
- Will USD be less than 1.4M Iranian rials on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.