Middle East · resolved market
Will USD be at least 1.9M Iranian rials on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf79d9a57049eb935fa8778a204f38340e45eab12f35df14819f486fdfb9f9143
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,728
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,728 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd726…b5c9backed Yes | 47c | 3,017$1,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,604.6 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +8.9wins | +0.29per pick | 33cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4d…33edbacked Yes | 62c | 1,733$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.98 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a58…b808backed No | 38c | 1,510$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.01 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2086…8ef7backed Yes | 53c | 1,181$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.25 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa344…8141backed No | 65c | 730.87$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.13 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 29c | 693.1$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.88 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 50c | 600.4$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 19c | 277$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.61 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 247.07$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.77 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…c522backed Yes | 62c | 234.47$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.56 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 77c | 199.99$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 199.52$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 45c | 199.25$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.03 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes | 74c | 189$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.21 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 37c | 185$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.85 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0748…103bbacked Yes | 22c | 162$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.71 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ce…0b77backed Yes | 22c | 152.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.71 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes | 40c | 146.26$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.76 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +44%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 141.2$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.66 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef7…21bebacked Yes | 72c | 138.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.73 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 77c | 135$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.95 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…680bbacked No | 49c | 131.21$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.67 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad65…8c6bbacked Yes | 32c | 131.11$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.29 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 25c | 129.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 33c | 126.61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 73c | 109$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 50c | 99.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 43c | 91.69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…80bcbacked Yes | 76c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 88$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.49 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc91e…07ddbacked No | 25c | 86.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.25 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 24c | 65.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.47 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 65c | 63.84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8dc…7d5fbacked No | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked No | 65c | 59.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…cefbbacked Yes | 28c | 57.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.24 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea0…e19dbacked No | 39c | 55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 29c | 54.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96bf…403ebacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…26aabacked No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe51e…e241backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked Yes | 43c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd3…1a5abacked No | 32c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…6392backed Yes | 79c | 31.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…3204backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 75c | 28.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 62c | 25.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…b80fbacked No | 74c | 18.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1946…6367backed No | 71c | 17.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will USD be at least 1.9M Iranian rials on July 31?this page
- Will USD be between 1.5M and 1.6M Iranian rials on July 31?No won
- Will USD be between 1.6M and 1.7M Iranian rials on July 31?No won
- Will USD be between 1.7M and 1.8M Iranian rials on July 31?No won
- Will USD be between 1.8M and 1.9M Iranian rials on July 31?No won
- Will USD be less than 1.4M Iranian rials on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.